The US Dollar Index sells the hold and ignores the hawks

A 9-3 vote held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% at 18:00 GMT, the three dissenters all preferring an immediate quarter-point increase. That is the most hawkish vote record of this chairmanship and the Dollar was sold on it regardless, the index sliding from just short of 101.50 to the 101.00 handle inside a single five-minute candle. The hawkish surprise that was supposed to bid the currency did the opposite.

Futures pricing carried better than a third of a hike into the decision, and a hold refunds that premium whatever the vote split says. The briefing at 18:30 GMT is where it can be reclaimed, because the statement blames energy and other supply shocks for elevated inflation while three voters treat the same shock as grounds to move now. September pricing near three-quarters for at least one increase is the number under pressure.

DXY 5-minute chart