JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with the "hold rates but hawkish stance" scenario (50% probability) set as the base case, which would result in the S&P 500 index remaining roughly flat or declining by 0.5%. The "hold rates but dovish stance" scenario (28% probability) is considered the most market-friendly and could drive the index up by as much as 1%. A 25 basis point rate hike (20% probability) might cause the S&P 500 index to fall by 1.5% to 2%, with th

JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with the "hold rates but hawkish stance" scenario (50% probability) set as the base case, which would result in the S&P 500 index remaining roughly flat or declining by 0.5%. The "hold rates but dovish stance" scenario (28% probability) is considered the most market-friendly and could drive the index up by as much as 1%. A 25 basis point rate hike (20% probability) might cause the S&P 500 index to fall by 1.5% to 2%, with th

智通财经2026/07/29 20:51

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JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. The "holding rates steady but with a hawkish stance" scenario (probability: 50%) is the baseline case, which would cause the S&P 500 Index to remain roughly flat or decline by 0.5%. "Holding rates steady but with a dovish stance" (probability: 28%) is considered the most favorable scenario for the market and could push the index up by as much as 1%. A 25 basis point rate hike (probability: 20%) may cause the S&P 500 Index to fall by 1.5% to 2%, with the Nasdaq Index potentially performing relatively weakly.

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