JPMorgan moves up its forecast for Federal Reserve interest rate hike to December

Glonghui July 30｜JPMorgan currently expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December, which is earlier than the bank's previous forecast of the second half of 2027. “At Walsh's press conference, he once again failed to clearly explain how he intends to fulfill his toughly stated determination to fight inflation,” wrote chief US economist Michael Feroli in a report. The chairman also questioned whether PCE will continue to serve as the Fed’s inflation target, “Both of these points raise doubts about whether this new chairman can achieve the goal of reducing inflation.” This in turn may create a greater sense of urgency among other members of the Federal Reserve Board, prompting them to fulfill their responsibilities. “We do not see this revision as the market ‘pressuring’ the Federal Reserve, but rather another challenge urging the Fed to take action to maintain its credibility.”