The US Dollar Index remained flat ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with an unusually high level of uncertainty about the outcome. Goldman Sachs economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady, but anticipate at least one dissenting vote in favor of a rate hike. In a recent report, they noted that energy price volatility caused by the war has cast a shadow over the outlook. Current market pricing indicates approximately a 30% chance of a rate hike today. According to Gold

Before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, the US Dollar Index remains flat; the level of uncertainty surrounding this decision is unusually high. Goldman Sachs economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold steady, but anticipate at least one dissenting vote in favor of a rate hike. In a report, they stated that energy price volatility caused by war has cast a shadow over the outlook. Current market pricing indicates there is about a 30% probability of a rate hike today. Goldman Sachs noted that if the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates today, the focus of the foreign exchange market will be on how much of the previously priced-in rate hike expectations will be shifted to subsequent meetings. Data from CME shows that investors have already priced in expectations of a rate hike in September.