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Gold steadies as GDP, PCE keep Fed-rate risk alive - Kitco AM Report

Gold steadies as GDP, PCE keep Fed-rate risk alive - Kitco AM Report

KitcoKitco2026/07/30 13:09
By:Kitco

(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are near unchanged and spot silver prices are slightly softer ahead of the North American market open Thursday, as traders digested Wednesday’s Fed hold, this morning’s U.S. GDP and PCE data, firm Treasury yields and elevated oil prices tied to ongoing U.S.-Iran risk. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,067 an ounce, while spot silver was trading near $58.19 on the session.

Gold’s early range was $4,028.40 to $4,101.10, leaving the metal above the $4,000 area but below the $4,101.10 session high and the $4,114 resistance level identified in the latest short-term technical setup. Silver’s early range was $57.95 to $58.20, with the metal holding above $57.95 but still below the $58.67 to $59.00 resistance area.

Positioning after Wednesday’s Fed rate announcement and this morning’s data remains two-sided, but not cleanly dovish for metals. The Fed held rates steady, but three policymakers dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh gave little signal that the Committee is ready to declare the inflation fight finished. This morning’s GDP report showed the U.S. economy expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, while June PCE inflation cooled to 3.7% year over year from 4.1% and core PCE eased to 3.3% from 3.4%. Personal income rose 0.2% and consumer spending rose 0.3%, while jobless claims increased to 197,000 but stayed below expectations. The data support the case for a Fed hold, but inflation remains above target and the 10-year Treasury yield stayed near the 4.7% area, limiting gold’s upside.

The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open but highly stressed transit under active military, shipping and diplomatic pressure. Fresh U.S. strikes followed Iranian missile attacks on American forces in the region, while shipping markets continue to price a risk premium into Gulf and Red Sea routes. Brent crude remained near the low-$90s and WTI held in the mid-$80s, below the worst levels of last week’s spike but still high enough to keep energy inflation risk in the Fed debate. 

For gold, the impact remains two-sided: geopolitical risk supports defensive demand, but oil-driven inflation risk keeps yields elevated and limits the upside for non-yielding bullion. For broader markets, the setup is oil still elevated, bonds under pressure, the dollar mixed and metals trading around rate expectations rather than a pure haven bid.

Traders are watching follow-through in Fed-rate pricing after the GDP and PCE releases, the market’s reaction to jobless claims, Friday’s inflation and income revisions, and any fresh disruption to Hormuz or Red Sea shipping lanes. A sustained move above $4,101.10 would improve gold’s short-term setup, while a break below $4,028.40 would put the $3,995.20 support area back in focus.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices steady and trading in the mid-$80s a barrel, while Brent crude was near the low-$90s. The U.S. dollar index is mixed after the data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.

Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $4,058 and the 100-period moving average near $4,071, while the metal continues to trade inside a short-term triangle after Wednesday’s Fed decision. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,101.10, with a sustained move targeting $4,114 and then $4,166. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,028.40, with deeper downside targets at $3,995.20 and then $3,959.80. First resistance is seen at $4,101.10 and then at $4,114. First support is seen at $4,028.40 and then at $3,995.20.

Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $58.11 and the 100-period moving average near $58.78, while the metal continues to hold above rising trendline support near $56.88. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $58.67, with a move above that level targeting $59.00 and then $60.03. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $56.88, with deeper downside targets at $56.11 and then $54.84. First resistance is seen at $58.67 and then at $59.00. Next support is seen at $56.88 and then at $56.11.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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