Malaysia: Balanced macro profile supports Ringgit – MUFG

MUFG notes Malaysia remains one of Asia’s stronger-performing economies, with above-trend growth, low inflation and robust external demand, especially in electronics. Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to keep the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75%, while higher energy prices may bolster fiscal revenues and help sustain fuel subsidies, limiting inflation pass-through to consumers.

Growth, inflation and policy stability

"Despite a tougher external backdrop, Malaysia remains one of the stronger-performing economies in Asia. Malaysia’s economy grew 5.8%yoy in Q2, picking up from 5.4% in Q1, despite the Middle East conflict. Notably, Malaysia’s economy has been operating above 4.9% trend growth for the last 4 quarters."

"Economic growth continues to be supported by a combination of healthy household consumption, rising wages, low unemployment rate, and robust investment activity. In particular, the electronics sector remains a key beneficiary of the global technology investment cycle, with Malaysia's electrical & electronics exports continuing to track higher global demand for computing equipment and AI-related infrastructure."

"Importantly, domestic inflation remains relatively contained compared with many regional peers. Government fuel subsidies continue to shield consumers from volatile energy prices, helping preserve household purchasing power and reducing pressure on Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to tighten policy. Headline inflation was only 2%yoy in June."

"The combination of above-trend growth and moderate inflation provides Malaysia with one of the more balanced macroeconomic profiles in the region. We expect BNM to maintain a neutral policy stance and keep the Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 2.75%. Policymakers have little urgency to adjust policy and we take the view that markets may have overpriced the chances of a BNM rate hike."

"Higher energy prices could actually improve oil related government revenues given Malaysia's status as a net energy exporter. This provides additional fiscal flexibility to maintain fuel subsidy programmes and limit cost pass-through effects to consumers."