Today is the last trading day of July, with not only the monthly candlestick close but also Friday. The market often sees portfolio adjustments and weekly close positioning, so volatility is expected to remain high throughout the day, and the battle for key price levels between bulls and bears will become even more intense.
From the monthly chart structure, this round of correction is more of a pullback within an uptrend, and the probability of a deep decline is relatively low. It is highly likely that July’s monthly candlestick will close as a strong bullish candle rebounding from the bottom (or a relatively strong bullish line), and the overall recovery structure has not been significantly damaged.
On the weekly chart, the market is still maintaining a bottoming and rebound pattern. Whether the price can continue to rebound today will directly affect the final shape of this week’s candle and also set the tone for early August trading.
From a technical perspective, the market has entered a typical stage right before a directional breakout:
The daily Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, with volatility dropping;
Moving averages are gradually converging, and the balance of power between bulls and bears is evening out;
The range-bound trading is at its tail-end, with the market gathering new trend momentum.
Generally, the longer the consolidation lasts, the more likely it is that the subsequent breakout will be sustained.
However, as a breakout nears, recent sessions have seen obvious fake breakouts and false breakdowns, with major players taking advantage of liquidity to hunt stops. Therefore, before a genuine surge in volume and breakout, chasing rallies or selling in panic is not recommended.
The more reasonable strategy for now remains:
Set stop-losses strictly;
Manage position sizes sensibly;
Be patient in the middle of the range, and wait for clear confirmation at key support or resistance levels before acting in line with the trend.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Consolidating before breakout, wait patiently for a clear direction.
BTC is still trading within a range, and the market has not yet chosen a final direction.
On the daily chart:
The moving averages are flattening out, and a trend signal has not yet appeared;
Bollinger Bands are continuing to narrow, indicating a major breakout window is approaching;
The current price is still below the 50-day EMA, with some distance from the higher major resistance zone, so a breakout will still require increased trading volume.
In the past two trading days, BTC’s price trend has improved compared to before and market support is slightly stronger.
From a time frame structure perspective:
8-hour and 12-hour charts remain bullish, with room and time left for further upward movement;
Time frames below 1 hour remain in a tug-of-war, as short-term capital is still waiting for a directional signal.
In summary, the current trend is still bullish on higher time frames, ranging on shorter time frames.
Until a clear volume-backed breakout appears, the suggested approach remains:
Watch for support levels to stabilize for buying opportunities;
Near resistance, do not blindly chase highs, and consider locking in some profits;
Breakouts must be confirmed by increased volume; otherwise, beware of fake breakout risks.
Today impacts both the monthly close and the final shape of the weekly chart, so price action may be more choppy than usual; waiting patiently for a clear signal is more important than guessing the direction in advance.
Key Levels for Reference
Support:
64,300-64,500
63,500-63,800
62,000-62,500
Resistance:
65,200
65,700
67,000-67,500
