The US and Iran offer conflicting statements as negotiations reach a stalemate, leaving the future of the Hormuz Agreement uncertain.

⑴ Trump claims that the United States will resume negotiations with Iran on Monday and says he has canceled the "largest military strike since World War II," instead looking forward to reaching an agreement. He stated that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar all requested the US to cancel the attack, as all parties believe consensus can be achieved regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's denuclearization. ⑵ However, Iran has explicitly denied direct negotiations with the United States. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Iran is currently only conducting bilateral consultations with Oman regarding safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and any matters involving the US will depend on the evolving situation. Foreign Minister Aragchi said the related negotiations have entered the final stage, aiming to establish new shipping routes but unrelated to whether the strait will reopen. ⑶ The fundamental contradictions in both sides’ statements highlight the extreme uncertainty in the diplomatic outlook. The framework agreement signed in June has been eroded by repeated retaliatory attacks; after the US bombed Iranian territory, Tehran closed the strait again in July and faced a maritime blockade from the US. Iran has warned that as long as American hostility continues, there will be no substantial improvement in the strait’s situation. ⑷ These statements and the ongoing standoff come at a time when the crude oil market is highly sensitive to supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's signal for negotiations briefly pushed oil prices down, but Iran’s denial of direct talks has heightened geopolitical uncertainty once again, and any further substantial progress or setbacks will prompt sharp volatility in the market.