The spot premium of Middle Eastern benchmark crude oil has declined, as the expected reopening of the Hormuz Strait signals an easing of supply constraints.

⑴ On Wednesday, spot premiums for Middle Eastern benchmark crude oils—Oman, Dubai, and Murban—generally declined, mainly driven by expectations that the Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen. Trump stated that he had “very good discussions” with Iran and Washington was seeking to announce an agreement on Wednesday, further boosting optimism about supply releases. ⑵ However, during late Asian trading hours, Yemen's Houthi forces claimed to have attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, partially dampening the market's optimistic expectations. Repeated reminders of geopolitical risks signal that improvements in the Middle East situation still face obstacles. ⑶ In the spot market, India's MRPL purchased 1 million barrels of Oman crude through a tender, with a transaction price at a premium of about $3 per barrel to spot Brent. Indian Oil Company purchased 4 million barrels of West African crude, including multiple grades from Angola and Congo, with Chevron as the supplier. ⑷ The Dubai spot premium to swaps fell by $0.68 to $6.85 per barrel. Overall, if the Hormuz agreement is officially implemented, the spot premium for Middle Eastern benchmark crude may face further narrowing pressure, but risks from secondary routes such as the Red Sea continue to limit the downside for oil prices.