USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls retake 200-day SMA amid recovery

The USD/JPY advances by some 0.41%, clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.06, as the Greenback recovers some ground following two days of intervention in the FX markets by US and Japanese authorities. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 158.39, after hitting a low of the day (LOD) of 157.56.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The overall trend remains downwards, despite the ongoing recovery that pushed the USD/JPY spot prices above the 200-day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, even though the index exited oversold territory near 20.

With that said, the path of least resistance favours further Yen strength, but a daily close above the 200-day SMA opens the door to challenge higher prices. In that scenario, the next resistance is the 159.00 mark, ahead of a test of the 100-day SMA at the 160.00 psychological level. If cleared, the next area of interest becomes the 50-day SMA at 161.21.

On the other hand, if USD/JPY ends Thursday’s session below the 200-day SMA, it opens the door for another leg down. The next support would be the August 4 daily low of 157.18, before plunging to challenge the August 3 swing low of 155.23. Beneath this area is the 155.00 figure, followed by the February 23 cycle low of 153.99.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily