US natural gas futures rebound from lows as high inventories and recovering exports compete fiercely
智通财经2026/08/07 14:06- US natural gas futures recorded a gain of nearly 2% on Friday, mainly boosted by liquefied natural gas export flows rebounding to a four-week high, with intraday trading near $2.68.
- Although the day ended higher, the front-month contract is still highly likely to register its seventh consecutive weekly decline, with a cumulative drop of about 17%. If realized, this would be the longest weekly losing streak since February 2023.
- The forward curve signals ample supply, with the 12-month average futures price falling to around $3.09, hitting a new low since November last year. This indicates the market is not concerned about the future supply-demand balance.
- In the US mainland 48 states, average daily production remains at a high level of about 11.1 billion cubic feet, matching the record set in July. Combined with mild spring weather this year, inventories have remained above the five-year average since March.
- Although continued hot summer weather is boosting demand for air conditioning and gas-fired power generation remains robust, persistently high production on the supply side and temporary constraints in export capacity have made inventory drawdown slower than usual.
- On the export side, recent production fluctuations at some Texas facilities caused overall export flows in August to be slightly below July levels, but as a major export terminal's single-day flow climbed to a record high, total daily industry exports are expected to reach about 1.8 billion cubic feet.
- Global gas prices remain significantly higher than those in the US, with European and Asian benchmark prices around $19 and $21 respectively. However, the large international price spread is not yet sufficient to quickly reverse the supply glut in the US market.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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