China’s CPI and PPI both decline, gold may enter a bullish phase, and Congo’s mining ban intensifies resource competition — 0810 Macroeconomic Briefing
- In July, the CPI year-on-year fell from 1% to 0.5%, core CPI dropped from 1% to 0.9%, and PPI year-on-year decreased from 4.1% to 3.5%, all below expectations. The decline in international oil prices and non-ferrous metal prices was the main drag on the PPI, but the continued rise in prices in midstream equipment manufacturing provided support. The PPI peak has been basically confirmed, and it is expected to fluctuate in the 3% to 3.5% range in the following period.
- After July's non-farm payrolls came in below expectations, gold rose above $4,300. It is expected to recover to $4,700 to $5,000 around the time of the September FOMC meeting. The decline in real interest rates provides measurable room for gains, and the reappearance of the US dollar credit risk premium could open up further upside potential. Global central banks have not slowed their pace of gold purchases, technical selling has basically been cleared, and gold has entered a right-side market.
- The Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned the export of copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate to promote domestic processing of mineral products. The ban has limited impact on the overall export volume of the copper industry, but signals that resource countries are strengthening raw material controls and seeking to extend their industrial chains. On the same day, the United States announced a $3 billion investment in critical minerals and battery projects to increase domestic production and reduce external dependence.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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