US-Iran Divergence Suppresses Peace Expectations, Oil Prices Remain Steady at One-Week Highs
智通财经2026/08/11 02:56- On Tuesday, international oil prices held steady near a one-week high, with Brent crude futures remaining flat around $87.70 per barrel and WTI crude futures staying at about $82.20 per barrel. Previously, U.S. President Trump demanded compensation from Iran for the losses suffered by the U.S., a statement that dampened market expectations for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight, oil prices surged more than 6%.
- On Monday, Trump responded to the conditions Iran proposed for a peace agreement, demanding that Iran compensate for deaths caused by war, attacks, and protests, which could further complicate diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Later in the day, he stated that the U.S. has control over the Strait of Hormuz and has cleared Iranian-laid naval mines.
- Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, noted that there are still significant differences between the U.S. and Iran on the form of any final agreement. Some of the optimism built up last week is fading, which is providing notable support for oil prices.
- On the supply side, Saudi Aramco has postponed the restart of the Jizan refinery, which has a daily processing capacity of 400,000 barrels, to August 30. This comes after Houthi forces claimed to have carried out two attacks on the plant on Sunday. Waterer pointed out that the risk of disruption remains very high for both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, two key energy transit choke points. Even intermittent restrictions or the threat of further incidents will keep insurance costs elevated and force vessels to take longer alternative routes. In the short term, energy transport flows are likely to remain constrained.
- A Barclays analyst report on Monday showed that, for the week ended August 7, the average net export flow of crude oil and refined products transported through the Strait of Hormuz was 3 million barrels per day, down from 4.4 million barrels per day the previous week.
- Additionally, Iraq has raised the official selling price of Basrah Medium crude for September delivery to Asia by $2.50, to a $4 per barrel discount against the Oman/Dubai crude average.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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