Good evening everyone, I'm XinYa. The Ethereum positions given for the evening session on 9.2 are all at divergence points—2380 and 2405 included. Even if aggressive short orders entered early, supplementing at the divergence point, you could still exit at the confrontation point; the digestion zone in between remains a short-term opportunity. However, as directional speculators, we shouldn't easily bet on such short-term trades, as it's easy to miss bigger moves.
To reiterate, in the process of directional speculation, when we're on the wrong side of the trend, anytime a replenishment zone is triggered, we must reduce positions at the new average price. This reduces disadvantages; when we reach the replenishment zone again, reduce at the new average price once more, turn secondary replenishment into new replenishment, stop-loss becomes secondary replenishment, and move the new stop-loss one sequence ahead. This way, we avoid being caught in a countertrend. Different sequences are inherently battlegrounds in speculation, so there are often opportunities to exit. Even if the final directional bet is wrong, losses are minimized, but if the directional bet is correct, doubling the account is the least expected result.
Looking at the structure, the third sell-off looks evident. In detail, BTC has been tightly controlled around 77,800. From 10am (UTC+8) to 2pm (UTC+8), price was suppressed under 77,800. At 3pm (UTC+8), bulls pushed for a false breakout and spiked to 78,200. This kind of movement easily damages the structure and can lead to a turning point. The battleground zone will definitely be repeatedly tested in the future market.
The 4-hour MACD histogram has turned positive, daily chart is in a death cross, and the 15-minute and 1-hour charts have similar structures. The large and small timeframes are at odds with each other. Currently, both the 1-hour EMA120 and EMA144 are around 77,800. This hourly rebound has broken 77,800; if it can hold above, even without a market reversal, it could be enough for a week and a half of choppy consolidation.
Three possibilities for the next market move:
First, the rebound extends to test the second sell-off, then starts a new 1-hour pullback.
Second, the rebound ends, and after a new hour of consolidation, a direction is decided; overall, it stays within the 4-hour consolidation range.
Third, it's just a false breakout to lure longs. After brief digestion, the 4-hour downtrend continues.
For BTC, watch the upside levels 78,800, 79,500, 80,500
Downside levels are 77,500, 76,500, 75,400
For Ethereum, watch 2,445, 2,485, 2,520
Downside levels are 2,380, 2,320, 2,265
Current average price is expected around 77,800 and 2,405
Supplement sequentially, reduce at new average price, mainly focus on shorts
Conservative short at 78,800, 2,445, supplement at lower sequence
For rebound, consider 75,400, with a 600-point loss
Ethereum 2,350, 2,280 could be considered, with a 20-point loss
As for gold, today's shorts were still a bit early
Entered in the morning and closed flat, average price in the afternoon was around 4,440, currently 4,470 can be supplemented, and stop-out at the whole level of 4,500. The target is still to test downward. Don't fear a small rebound; loss is exchanged for a relatively advantageous average price, it's worth it. Don't let the rebound shake your resolve.
