Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trapped below 100-day SMA as US NFP approaches
Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates with marginal losses on Friday following back-to-back daily gains, as traders avoid taking large positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $67 caps the immediate upside, while momentum indicators point to limited bullish strength. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $66.80.
The US economy is expected to add 56K jobs in August after shedding 23K in July, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%. The US economy is expected to add 56K jobs in August after shedding 23K in July, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%.
The figures are likely to play a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its September 15-16 monetary policy meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool currently showing around a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike.
A stronger-than-expected NFP could keep XAG/USD below the 100-day SMA, while a disappointing result may clear the way for a bullish breakout.
Technical analysis
XAG/USD holds above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62, but remains below the 100-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, leaving the near-term bias broadly neutral with a slight topside cap.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart around 55 hints at modest bullish momentum, yet the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 17 suggests a weak underlying trend.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, although the fading red histogram bars indicate that bearish momentum is easing, reinforcing the idea of a consolidation phase rather than a clear directional move.
On the downside, the 50-day SMA near $62 and the psychological $60 mark form a strong support zone, followed by a more robust horizontal floor around $55.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA near $67, followed by the 200-day SMA around $72. A break above these levels could open the door towards the $80 mark.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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