Analyst warns XRP may retest $1 before moving above $2

XRP bull flag formation and resistance levels

Steph observed that XRP has formed a large bull flag, a technical pattern often associated with potential price breakouts. This formation, characterized by downward-sloping resistance and support within a broader uptrend, has led to speculation about a significant upside if key resistance levels are breached.

Comparing XRP’s current structure to its previous consolidation phases after major rallies, Steph argued that the ongoing compression could precede a strong upward move. However, he identified $1.43 as a crucial threshold. Only if XRP closes one or two four-hour candles above $1.43 would he consider the breakout confirmed and the bulls in control.

Steph also cited $2.10 as a short-term upside target if buyers manage to clear the primary resistance area. On the other hand, he underlined $1.32 as a pivotal support. Failure to hold this support, especially with several consecutive four-hour closes below it, could suggest the end of the bull flag’s validity.

The price has to show strength above $1.43 for a clear breakout, with $2.10 in view, but a drop below $1.32 could put the bullish setup at risk.

Weekly timeframe analysis and Gaussian Channel impact

Turning to a broader perspective, Steph compared present-day XRP patterns with its late 2022 bear market behavior using the Gaussian Channel indicator. The Gaussian Channel is a technical analysis tool that smooths price data to highlight potential trend reversals and consolidations.

Reviewing historical data, Steph referenced how XRP rallied into the lower boundary of the Gaussian Channel in 2022, consolidated, then dropped further to form a double bottom before a significant trend reversal. He noted that XRP is exhibiting similar traits today, rallying into but being rejected at the channel’s lower band, followed by another period of sideways movement.

Mini dictionary: Gaussian Channel, a technical indicator that uses smoothed moving averages to define overbought and oversold zones, helping traders identify trend changes and potential support or resistance areas.

Pivotal scenarios: Breakout or retest lower support

Steph outlined two main scenarios for XRP’s price, emphasizing the importance of current trading levels. If the cryptocurrency manages to break out above $1.43 and sustain momentum, a push toward $2 and even $2.10 could follow quickly.

Alternatively, if $1.30 fails to hold as support, Steph warned that XRP might form another double bottom pattern, similar to what played out in 2022. In this bearish scenario, the price could revisit the $1 area before a broader reversal occurs.

Immediate levels around $1.43 and $1.30 will likely determine whether XRP sees further gains soon or faces another correction before recovering.

Steph Is Crypto highlighted that these price regions could be decisive in the coming period for XRP’s short-term direction, urging traders to watch the $1.43 and $1.30 zones closely.