Why Are Copper Prices at a Record High? Major Copper Producers See Q2 Output Declines and Cut Full-Year Supply Guidance!

In the first half of 2026, the combined output of 49 global sample copper companies totaled 8.196 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, down by 371,000 tons; the year-on-year decline in the second quarter further expanded to 4.5%, indicating that the contraction in supply has not eased but instead deepened.

Meanwhile, the annual production guidance was revised down by a net 38,000 tons, and only 6 out of 35 sample companies increased their capital expenditure. Against the backdrop of LME copper prices already standing at $14,300/ton, up about 15% year-to-date, the key questions are whether the output contraction of major copper companies is cyclical or structural, how much more upside there is for copper prices, and what catalysts might drive further increases.

The supply contraction is driven by three structural factors: "mine aging, unexpected disasters, and a transition gap between old and new mines." On the demand side, AI data centers and grid upgrades are transforming copper into a strategic metal. The fundamentals suggest there is room for the copper price center to move higher, but in the short term, attention should be paid to a potential regional supply-demand rebalance as US tariff-driven stockpiling fades.