Oil prices approach the 100-yuan mark, while sovereign bond yields in Europe and the US rise together; markets await the ECB decision and US inflation data.

⑴ Driven by rising oil prices and position adjustments ahead of key risk events, both eurozone and US government bond yields rose in early European trading on Tuesday. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed about 2.4 basis points to around 4.81%, while the 10-year German Bund yield increased about 1.2 basis points to around 3.39%, both holding near recent multi-year highs. Brent crude rose about 2.2% to roughly $99 per barrel.⑵ According to institutional strategists, as oil prices approach the $100 mark again, eurozone rates are following suit. The market generally expects the European Central Bank to hike rates by about 25 basis points this week, pushing the deposit rate to around 2.50% while also releasing its latest quarterly forecasts for economic growth and inflation.⑶ Senior strategists from institutions believe that since the European Central Bank already raised rates once in June, another rate hike this week will reinforce its cautious, data-dependent policy stance. Should inflation risks intensify, further rate hikes taking the deposit rate above approximately 2.50% cannot be ruled out, especially given that economic growth continues to surpass expectations.⑷ Given the resilience shown by the eurozone economy, institutions expect the European Central Bank may slightly upgrade its 2026 and 2027 growth forecasts. The market is closely watching how President Lagarde responds to the recent surge in energy prices and expectations for further rate hikes. Current market pricing suggests the deposit rate peak will reach nearly 3% by mid-2027, though some institutions maintain the baseline view that no further hikes will occur after the September meeting.⑸ This Thursday, the ECB decision and Friday's US CPI data will be released successively, followed by the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 16. The current market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike is around 59%. The outcome of the two major central banks’ policy trajectories will continue to dominate the near-term direction of the global bond market.