US Equity Investors to Focus on August's Inflation Print as September Fed Rate Increase Probability Remains Elevated

05:40 AM EDT, 09/08/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US equity investors are expected to focus on August's inflation data and the Iran war this week as concerns surrounding price pressures heighten while Q2 earnings taper. * Friday's Consumer Price Index is set to rise by 0.4% month-over-month, according to a Scotiabank note late Friday. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, likely grew 0.3%. * The producer price index for August will be refreshed the day before CPI, and some of its components will serve as input into expectations for core personal consumption expenditures inflation, along with what is learnt from CPI after adjusting for methodological differences, per the Scotiabank note. * "Notwithstanding recent progress, an upside shock could further tip the balance toward pricing a hike that Chair Warsh's deference to markets would probably find irresistible, whereas another soft reading may not," Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said in the note. * The probability of the Federal Reserve raising its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.0% in September stood at 60% early Tuesday, up from 44% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The remaining likelihood is that policy will remain on hold this month. Last Friday, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, compared with a 55,000 increase projected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. July's tally was revised to show a gain of 21,000 from a 23,000 fall, while June's increase was adjusted upward by 11,000. * Yemen's Tehran-backed Houthis attacked energy facilities and cities in US ally Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, wounding more than 70 people and underscoring the risk of the Iran conflict escalating into a wider regional war, Reuters reported. Global benchmark North Sea Brent jumped 1.7% to $98.70 per barrel early Tuesday. * Quarterly earnings due this week include Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), Copart (CPRT), and Kroger (KR).