Copper: Record prices and Chile supply issues – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke highlights that LME 3‑month Copper has set a new all‑time high above USD 14,530 per ton, supported by strong US demand and anticipated import tariffs. Additional support comes from Chilean supply disruptions, where weather‑related operational problems and port issues have cut exports from a country that accounts for about a quarter of global mine output.

US demand and Chile disruptions

"The 3-month forward copper price on the LME reached a new all-time high yesterday, briefly surpassing the previous high of USD 14,530 per ton set earlier this year."

"As we reported last Friday (among other things), this was primarily due to strong demand for copper from the US as inventories on the COMEX have risen significantly recently, due to the US Department of Commerce’s plans for copper import tariffs, which were supposed to be unveiled by the end of June this year. However, these plans have yet to materialize."

"The copper price is receiving additional support from supply issues in Chile, the world’s largest producer. The value of Chilean copper exports fell to USD 4.62 billion in August, the lowest level since July 2025."

"The weak exports are due to operational problems at the mines as well as severe winter storms featuring heavy rain, snow, and high winds, which disrupted mining operations in July and August."

"This represents a 14% decline from July and a 3.2% decline from the previous year, even though the average copper price in August was more than 40% higher than the previous year’s level."

"At times, rough seas also hampered operations at the ports. Since Chile accounts for about a quarter of global mine production, the lower exports are supporting the high price level."