XRP and the CLARITY Act: Why September 15 Could Be a Major Test

All crypto eyes have turned to the two major events next week (and the CPI inflation data on Friday), with some favoring the FOMC meeting, while others put more emphasis on the CLARITY Act vote on September 15.

The XRP community appears to be in the second camp, as the countdown to the vote has become one of the biggest talking points among them, especially on X and Reddit.

XRP Has an Advantage?

The highly anticipated legislation would establish a comprehensive framework dividing responsibility for crypto between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. For Ripple’s native token, one of those major regulatory questions has already been answered via a lengthy and painful lawsuit.

In March, the SEC explicitly identified XRP as a digital commodity, alongside BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA, and several other crypto assets. The watchdog said digital commodities derive their value primarily from the operation of their underlying networks and supply-and-demand dynamics rather than expectations of profits generated via the essential managerial efforts of others.

As such, the CLARITY Act could provide something more valuable over the long term: durability. Current SEC and CFTC interpretations can potentially be changed by future administrations, but federal legislation is considerably harder to reverse.

The bill would also establish a formal regulatory regime for digital commodity exchanges, brokers, and dealers, and give the CFTC an expanded role in overseeing spot digital commodities markets.

In a recent interview, Ripple’s CLO described September 15 as a “bellwether” for whether comprehensive crypto legislation can continue advancing through Congress. He also argued that the bill provides a much more permanent foundation than agency rulemaking alone.

Not the Final Vote

Although the XRP community is putting much hope on September 15, it’s worth explaining that the Senate will not vote on passing the CLARITY Act on that day. Instead, policymakers will vote on cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, a measure that requires 60 votes and would allow the legislation to move toward formal Senate consideration.

Failure to move on, though, could effectively derail the bill’s chances of success this year, while the odds have significantly declined from over 70% to roughly 30% in months.

A major law-enforcement obstacle was removed last week when the National Sheriffs’ Association dropped its opposition, moving to a neutral position. However, a new report on Monday suggested that the unresolved ethics dispute may be even more serious.

Semafor claimed that several Republican senators now believe the legislation is likely to fail next week, especially if the White House doesn’t help bridge the divide over restrictions on government officials profiting from the industry.

Ultimately, XRP will likely benefit from a successful cloture vote, but in a more modest manner. The major impact can be expected once the bill becomes law. However, if the voting on September 15 fails, XRP, alongside the rest of the market, could fall hard. The situation can worsen a day later if the Fed hikes rates and displays an even more hawkish stance.