Yesterday, a round of accelerated decline by the bears finally occurred, but after the price entered the key support area, buying support reappeared. Although the market has seen some recovery, it still has not broken away from the overall bearish structure.
It’s worth noting that the degree of recovery between BTC and ETH has diverged significantly: BTC’s rebound is weak, not even breaking the 30-minute resistance effectively; ETH, on the other hand, once broke through the 1-hour resistance before pulling back. This indicates that ETH remains relatively stronger than BTC in the short term, but the strength also hides new risks—long positions are increasingly crowded.
Looking at the funding rates, BTC’s weighted funding rate is around 0.009%, remaining relatively neutral; ETH’s is around 0.0111%-0.0123%, significantly higher than BTC’s, showing that bulls are more aggressive.
An even greater concern is that the current long/short ratio for ETH has reached 2.6179, higher than the common crowded level. When bullish positions become excessively concentrated, a rebound does not necessarily mean safety—in fact, it may create a window for liquidating leveraged longs.
Today, important macroeconomic data will be released, which will markedly increase the risk of stop-hunting, false breakouts, and both longs and shorts getting squeezed before and after the data release. At this stage, it is not advisable to chase shorts near support, nor to assume a trend reversal just because of a single rebound.
₿ BTC
View: Focus on selling high, do not chase shorts, consider buying dips as a supplement.
BTC is currently showing obvious weakness, with its rebound lagging significantly behind ETH. However, both the 30-minute and 60-minute charts still show a need for technical recovery, so the cost-effectiveness of chasing shorts at the current position has already declined.
76,000—76,300 remains a very critical demand area. This level has been tested multiple times, but buying below continues to provide support, indicating that if bears want to push prices lower, they must truly break through this defensive line.
The more reasonable approach at present is:
Do not chase shorts near support → wait for a short-term recovery to complete → look for high sell opportunities if the rebound reaches resistance.
If today’s released data is significantly below market expectations, beware of a sudden rapid surge in risk assets—short positions in particular need to pay attention to stop-loss and wick risks.
Support: 76,000-76,300, 75,600
Resistance: 77,300-77,800, 78,500-79,000
⟠ ETH
View: Short-term strength over BTC, but with crowded longs, mainly sell high, supplement with buying dips.
ETH’s biggest dilemma at present is: while its price structure is relatively strong, contract longs are already extremely crowded.
The large-holder long/short ratio is about 2.19, with institutions clearly favoring longs; retail long/short ratio is relatively low, indicating that capital is taking the lead while retail investors are gradually following.
From a trend perspective, ETH’s daily EMA30 and EMA60 are still trending upwards, and the structure of the medium- and long-term moving averages remains intact, so there is still potential for further gains on larger timeframes.
However, short-term leverage risk cannot be ignored.
When both funding rates and long/short ratios rise, if the price fails to break through the 2,480–2,500 or even 2,520 area for too long, there is a high chance of a pattern where “price doesn’t rise—more and more longs—sudden downward liquidation” occurs.
Therefore, it’s advisable to be more cautious at the rebound resistance area; if a clear support shows up after a pullback to 2,400–2,430, then low-buying opportunities can be observed again. Be especially cautious of quick wicks during data releases.
Support: 2,400-2,430, 2,380, 2,355
Resistance: 2,480-2,500, 2,520-2,550
