Oil prices surged and then retreated, gold rose slightly, and the market awaits US CPI data to guide Fed policy.

⑴ Spot gold saw a slight increase on Friday, rising 0.6% to $4,343.32 per ounce, after hitting a one-week low during the session; US gold futures edged down to $4,384.75 per ounce. ⑵ Brent crude oil fell more than 3%, retreating to around $104 per barrel; the IEA lowered its oil demand forecast for this year, and there are reports that Gulf foreign ministers will meet with Iranian representatives in Salalah, Oman on Monday to discuss shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz. ⑶ US PPI data showed renewed inflationary pressure at the wholesale level, with the US dollar remaining strong; the market is focused on the August CPI to be released later today, with economists expecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. ⑷ The CPI will be the core reference for the Federal Reserve’s September 16 interest rate decision, and current market pricing puts the probability of a rate hike next week at 70%. ⑸ On the European front, after the European Central Bank President Lagarde raised rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, she warned that upside inflation risks and downside economic risks coexist, with the market expecting the European rate hike cycle may extend into next year.