Today is Sunday, also the key time window for this week's weekly K-line close. During the Asian session, due to overall low liquidity, volatility is usually not too high, but as we get closer to the weekly close, the battle between bulls and bears around key levels may become more pronounced.
Yesterday, on Saturday, the market once again displayed a typical low-liquidity short squeeze. After a rapid rally in the afternoon, it eventually returned to the support area, which indicates that the market has not truly moved out of a choppy structure.
The real determinant for the upcoming market will be several major events in the new week.
First is the September 16th FOMC meeting. Current market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike are already very high. If the hike is implemented and the statement remains hawkish, risk assets may face new selling pressure; conversely, if there is an unexpectedly dovish signal, the market's expectation gap could trigger a wave of short covering, leading to a swift rebound.
Meanwhile, the September 15th procedural voting related to the CLARITY Act could also stir cryptocurrency market sentiment.
Therefore, the biggest risk at present is not simply being bullish or bearish, but the rapid wicks and false breakouts triggered by the gap between expectation and reality after several major events cluster together.
₿ BTC
View: Overall, look for short opportunities at highs; pay attention to buying the dips if a sharp drop and wick occur.
Currently, BTC is in the lower-middle area of its consolidation range. Short-term momentum has weakened but hasn't resulted in a decisive technical breakdown.
Market sentiment is also cooling. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped from overheated levels back to neutral, indicating that after prolonged high-level consolidation, investors' appetite for chasing the price higher has diminished.
However, continued support from institutions and spot funds has provided some resilience to the lower support zone. Therefore, this is not an ideal level for aggressive shorting; instead, it is better to wait for price action around key areas.
Currently, two levels are most critical:
Above: 81,300 — the key breakout test for truly opening a new upward cycle.
Below: 76,400 — the most crucial support line of the current consolidation box.
As long as 76,400 is not convincingly broken, the market is still operating in a wide range. If there is a fast downward wick and clear buying support, short-term rebound opportunities may arise.
If the rebound enters the 78,500–80,000 area, then watch for resistance at higher levels.
Support: 76,400, 77,000
Resistance: 78,500-79,000, 80,000
⟠ ETH
View: Overall, look for short opportunities at highs, but sharp dips with volume spikes could still present dip-buying chances.
ETH has recently outperformed BTC for two consecutive days, primarily driven by the continuous strengthening of the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
This independent move requires special attention:
When the exchange rate rises, ETH shows greater elasticity, but once the rate pulls back sharply, ETH typically drops faster than BTC.
Therefore, the cost-benefit ratio of chasing at this position has already decreased.
From a technical perspective, ETH is still trading above the 20-day EMA, providing some support for a medium-term bullish structure; the RSI is around 63.6, indicating that buyers are still dominant, but the market hasn't yet reached extremely overbought conditions. Therefore, there is still room for short-term tests of upper resistance.
If another test of the 2,550–2,610 area fails to push higher and stalls, caution is warranted for a pullback from highs; if there is a quick retest of 2,500 or even the 2,450–2,460 area with increased volume and visible support, look for dip-buying opportunities in the short term.
Support: 2,500–2,510, 2,450–2,460
Resistance: 2,550, 2,580, 2,610, 2,660
