Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bears have the upper hand below $64.75-$64.85 confluence

Silver (XAG/USD) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band above the $64.00 mark through the Asian session as traders seem hesitant to place directional bets ahead of key central bank event risks.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Wednesday, which will be followed by the Bank of England (BoJ) meeting on Thursday and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy update on Friday. Investors will look for more cues about central banks' future policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in driving demand for the non-yielding XAG/USD.

From a technical perspective, the white metal holds below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at $64.91 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $64.78, which together cap the near-term tone and keep the bias bearish. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero with a slightly negative latest reading.

Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 suggests waning momentum after the recent pullback, reinforcing the idea of a market that is struggling to regain topside traction. The setup, in turn, suggests that any meaningful bullish attempts would face immediate resistance at the 38.2% retracement at $64.78, closely followed by the 200-period SMA at $64.91.

A further move up could lift the XAG/USD pair to the next relevant hurdle near the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $67.15 and the cycle high region around $70.99. On the downside, initial support appears at the 50% retracement near $62.86, ahead of the 61.8% Fibo. at $60.94, with deeper structural floors at $58.21 and $54.74.

XAG/USD 4-hour chart