Elon Musk fuels speculation about a Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) merger, "hinting" at actions during "close cooperation"

According to Zhihu Finance APP, Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares saw slight pre-market gains on Tuesday after CEO Elon Musk refused to rule out the possibility of a merger between the two companies, reigniting speculation that has spread from retail investors to Wall Street.

Asked at the All-In Summit why Tesla and SpaceX, despite becoming increasingly interlinked, remain independent, Musk called it a "good question" and hinted that their close relationship might eventually prompt action. "When you have all these collaborations on so many levels, when there is such close cooperation across so many areas, who can imagine what might take place?" he said.

Both Tesla and SpaceX fell about 2% on Monday and then edged up 0.1% and 0.5% respectively in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Wall Street Weighs Tesla-SpaceX Merger

The debate over a Tesla-SpaceX merger was initially constructed mainly by notable retail investors, who speculated about possible equity structures, share swap ratios, and valuation models. Since then, it has attracted attention from Jefferies and JPMorgan.

Jefferies stated there was a strategic rationale for combining the two companies. According to their framework, if the deal is done without a merger premium, Musk could retain about 55.3% of voting control, potentially leaving room for Tesla shareholders to receive a premium. JPMorgan said the merger is "strategically consistent on paper," noting possible integration in AI, robotics, energy, transportation, and space sectors.

Tesla and SpaceX Deepen Ties

Tesla and SpaceX remain legally independent, but their operations are increasingly intertwined.

Tesla brings expertise in batteries, power systems, manufacturing, and AI. SpaceX contributes launch capabilities, Starlink connectivity, satellite infrastructure, and experience managing large-scale complex engineering projects.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said at the All-In Summit that SpaceX personnel have also joined xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps. She said the team integration was "faster than I expected," though the businesses are "not yet fully integrated."

Shotwell also noted collaboration in AI, computing, and solar panel production. SpaceX plans to launch AI computing satellites, while Musk’s companies are working in chips, energy, data centers, and manufacturing. Tesla's self-driving cars and Optimus robot need AI computing, energy storage, and reliable connectivity. SpaceX needs batteries, solar, chips, and mass production for Starlink, Starship, and its soon-to-launch orbital computing network.

Roadster Teaser Fuels Merger Speculation

Tesla recently announced the next-generation Roadster will be unveiled on October 1, using the phrase "Go for launch," an obvious nod to SpaceX's rocket missions. The Roadster first debuted in November 2017 but has been delayed for years.

The electric carmaker often leverages high-profile product events to attract attention, and Musk has previously discussed ambitious performance goals for the Roadster, including possible rocket-assisted features.

On Stocktwits, sentiment for Tesla is "extremely bearish," while SpaceX is "bearish," with normal message volume for both. Over the past year, Tesla has declined by 9%, and SpaceX by 8%.