Is Tesla (TSLA.US) about to release its most expensive model? Roadster launch imminent, but options market remains indifferent

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Tesla (TSLA.US) vehicles have always been expensive, and with the upcoming launch of the Roadster on October 1, which requires a $50,000 reservation deposit, it is likely to become the company's most expensive model to date. However, Tesla's option prices are not particularly high: the one-month implied volatility is around the 36th percentile. Even as the Roadster launch and other catalysts approach, and October is usually a month of above-average volatility, this indicator remains well below the mean.

Roadster Scheduled for October 1: $50,000 Deposit Required, Delivery Uncertainty Remains

The early-September launch of Cybercab did not gain analyst approval, especially from Wells Fargo analysts who pointed out that this autonomous taxi service faced "execution issues." However, Tesla's stock price has since gradually recovered its losses. Now, with Roadster orders reopening and one-month option premiums near the lower end of the range, all indications suggest the stock could surpass levels before the Cybercab launch. Still, if the Roadster's market debut also fails to meet investor expectations, certain risks remain.

The Roadster sports car will officially debut on October 1 at SpaceX's test facility in McGregor, Texas. The reservation process is not simple: it requires a refundable $5,000 payment by credit card, followed by a $45,000 wire transfer within ten days. The reservation is only complete upon receipt of funds. Currently, reservations are also open in Canada and China. Tesla states that the event will finally reveal the Roadster's price, specifications, and production targets.

Skeptics point out that the company also collected the same $50,000 deposit back in 2017 but has since repeatedly missed delivery dates. However, the decision to reopen reservations just two weeks before the launch event itself sends a signal—the company would not ask customers to prepay $50,000 for an embarrassing car, or at least that's the hope. The Cybertruck launch event was, in fact, somewhat awkward: the chief engineer shattered the “shatterproof” window during a demo.

Cybercab Fears Exaggerated: Long-term Autonomous Logic Unchanged

Michael Khouw, co-founder and chief strategist at options analysis platform OpenInterest.PRO, believes the market's previous negative reaction to the Cybercab launch was somewhat excessive. When Cybercab debuted in Austin on September 3, it did disappoint some investors; but given regulatory hurdles and other practical challenges, it was unrealistic to expect immediate disruptive impact right out of the gate.

Khouw emphasizes that autonomous ride-hailing will eventually become part of how people travel. Over the next few years, the real key issue is not whether Tesla's first two-seater is mature enough or practical enough on launch day, but which companies can produce hundreds of thousands or even millions of autonomous vehicles at commercially viable costs and actually get them on the road. Looking globally, few companies have proven themselves capable of designing, manufacturing, and distributing complex consumer hardware at such massive scale. Tesla is one of them.

For Tesla, early-stage turbulence seems to be the norm, but subsequently it has proven it can achieve what only a handful of companies outside China can do.

Valuation Debate: Traditional Frameworks Are Hard to Apply, but Premium Is for the Future

The fairest criticism of Tesla is not about execution issues with novel automotive technology, but valuation. Judging Tesla by traditional car company standards, or referencing Uber or Lyft as AV taxi peers, such criticism seems warranted; given current earnings, Tesla’s valuation multiples are hard to justify. Tesla’s forward P/E ratio is 213x, versus 22x for Uber and 7x for Ford.

But the market has never valued Tesla in the traditional way, and for good reason. The company and its founder have repeatedly achieved things considered impossible or even absurd: profitable mass-market EVs, a charging network now adopted by others, grid-scale energy storage, and reusable rockets at SpaceX. A more appropriate view is that Tesla is a technology company with rare and hard-to-acquire expertise in complex consumer product engineering and manufacturing. From this perspective, its premium is less about a bubble and more about reasonable valuation for its unique advantages in autonomous driving, robotics, and energy—fields few others can truly lay claim to.

Trading Strategy: With Multiple Catalysts Approaching, Bull Call Spreads Are Preferable to Simple Calls

The Semi truck launch event will be held on September 24, the Roadster sports car will appear on October 1, followed closely by Q3 delivery numbers—Tesla's one-month options would seem primed to be bid up, but that’s not the case. The 30-day implied volatility is about 41%, which is relatively high for a large company but near the bottom of Tesla’s trading range over the past year. For a stock that can swing 5% on news, this price is a reasonable cost for upside exposure.

Rather than buying outright calls, Khouw recommends using bull call spreads, which can reduce option premium costs and minimize risk from post-event volatility. The 380/440 bull call spread expiring October 30 would cover the Roadster launch, the delivery report, and the forthcoming earnings report.