Today is Friday, and coincides with the Mid-Autumn holiday, so Asia-Pacific market liquidity may be affected. However, compared to the holiday impact, what deserves more attention today is the volatility risk caused by the large-scale centralized options expiration.
The market has already experienced a noticeable round of two-way leverage washout: both bullish and bearish positions have seen large-scale liquidations, which means the influence of leveraged capital on price movements has clearly increased recently.
There are also significant divergences in different timeframes:
The overall bullish structure remains intact, but the 12-hour and daily charts are still under adjustment pressure; while the short-term cycles are repeatedly recovering.
Yesterday, after the market dipped to the 8-hour support area, it was quickly pulled back by capital, returning again to high-level consolidation. This shows there is still buying support below, but momentum in the 2-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour timeframes has clearly declined, and the bullish vs. bearish divergence is widening.
The main thing to guard against today is double-sided liquidation:
First a breakout upward to force bear liquidations, then a rapid drop to attack bulls; or a downward spike for a flush, then a quick rebound.
Therefore, at present, the most important thing is not to predict direction in advance, but to focus on key levels and wait for volume confirmation.
₿ BTC
Opinion: High-level consolidation, favoring short positions at highs, long positions at lows, and currently watching the 83,000—85,500 range.
BTC rose all the way from around 75,900 on September 17 to near 87,400, an increase of nearly 15%. Currently, it is retreating to around 84,000, which is better defined as a normal reset following a continuous rise, rather than a confirmed reversal of the main trend.
The daily moving average structure still remains bullish, with EMA15 and EMA30 continuing to provide dynamic support below the price; at the same time, the price has returned from the upper Bollinger band to the middle-upper band area, with no significant bearish candles damaging the trend so far.
However, short-term momentum has clearly cooled.
Thus, there is no single-sided direction forecast today; focus first on handling the 83,000—85,500 main range:
If 83,000—83,300 sees a rapid dip with buying support, look for a recovery; if a rebound at 85,000—85,500 is resisted, continue to watch for short opportunities at highs.
Only a real breakout above 85,500 or an effective breakdown below 83,000 warrants switching to a consolidation mindset.
Support: 83,000-83,300, 82,500
Resistance: 85,000-85,500, 86,000, 87,000
⟠ ETH
Opinion: High-level consolidation, focus on shorts at highs and longs at lows, mainly follow BTC.
ETH is also in a consolidation phase after a high-level pullback. The medium-term structure is still resilient, but short-term cycles are already in adjustment.
Meanwhile, the market is seeing some profit-taking pressure. Some large positions have transferred assets during the high-level pullback, indicating that after the recent rapid rise, the funds have started to diverge clearly.
Today BTC options expire centrally, and although ETH is not at the core of this round of options events, due to overall risk appetite and BTC volatility quickly transmitting, ETH may also see significant spikes.
Therefore, today ETH is more suited for range-based operations:
Watch buying support at 2,650—2,680, watch first resistance at 2,700—2,720; if it continues up to 2,750 or even 2,780—2,800, focus heavily on whether trading volume keeps up.
If BTC suddenly makes a rapid breakout, ETH, as a highly elastic asset, will typically be much more volatile, so contract positions especially need careful management.
Support: 2,650-2,680, 2,630, 2,580
Resistance: 2,700-2,720, 2,750, 2,780-2,800
