U.S. Stocks Weekly Macro Preview (Sep. 28–Oct. 2)

Monday, Sep. 28

1. China Data: Profits at China’s industrial firms rose 15.7% YoY in the first eight months of the year. Watch for the impact on Chinese ADRs and broader Asia-Pacific market sentiment.

2. Fed Speakers: Fed Governor Cook and other officials are scheduled to speak, with markets watching for comments on AI, the economic outlook, and financial conditions.

3. Oil Prices: Middle East tensions remain a key driver of crude oil. Watch for any renewed rise in oil prices and its potential impact on inflation expectations.

Tuesday, Sep. 29

1. ★★★★ Two Major AI Events:

   1. White House AI Meeting: President Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and other tech executives are expected to attend an AI-focused meeting. The AI-powered website America.gov is also set to launch the same day.

   2. OpenAI DevDay 2026: The event will take place in San Francisco, with potential new product announcements including GPT-6 Cyber. CEO Sam Altman is scheduled to deliver the keynote at 1:00 AM Beijing Time on Wednesday.

2. U.S. Labor Data: August JOLTS job openings will be released at 10:00 PM Beijing Time, offering another gauge of whether labor demand is cooling.

3. Consumer Confidence: The September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will also be released at 10:00 PM, with investors watching for changes in consumer sentiment and employment expectations.

Wednesday, Sep. 30

1. ★★★★★ Core PCE: August Core PCE inflation will be released at 8:30 PM Beijing Time. The key question is whether inflation continues to reaccelerate, which could directly affect expectations for the October FOMC meeting.

2. Labor & Growth Data: September ADP employment will be released at 8:15 PM, followed by the final estimate of Q2 GDP at 8:30 PM.

3. ★★★★★ Micron (MU) Earnings: Micron will report fiscal Q4 2026 results after the market close. Focus will be on HBM demand, DRAM pricing, and guidance for AI data-center demand.

Thursday, Oct. 1

1. ★★★★ Nike (NKE) Earnings: Nike will report fiscal Q1 2027 results after the market close. Key areas to watch include North America, China, inventory levels, and consumer spending resilience.

2. Tesla Roadster: Tesla is expected to unveil its next-generation Roadster, with attention on production timing, performance specs, and new technologies.

3. Fed Speakers: Jefferson, Waller, Cook, and other Fed officials are scheduled to speak, with markets looking for signals on the economic outlook and monetary policy path.

4. China Market Holiday: Mainland China’s A-share market will be closed from Oct. 1–7, while Hong Kong will be closed on Oct. 1.

Friday, Oct. 2

1. ★★★★★ U.S. September Jobs Report: Nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings will be released at 8:30 PM Beijing Time. Markets currently expect job growth to slow, making this one of the most important macro releases of the week.

2. Factory Orders: U.S. August factory orders will be released at 10:00 PM, providing another read on manufacturing activity and corporate demand.

Core Themes: Core PCE and nonfarm payrolls will provide a two-part test for the Fed’s October rate-hike path; OpenAI DevDay and Micron earnings will test the strength of the AI trade; Nike earnings will offer a read on U.S. consumer resilience; and Tesla’s Roadster unveiling will provide a company-specific catalyst.