Canada's GDP Seen Stalling in July, RBC Says

06:45 AM EDT, 09/28/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's gross domestic product is seen flat on a monthly basis in July after GDP grew an average of 0.4% month over month from April to June, according to RBC Economics in a note. RBC's July estimate of unchanged month-on-month GDP is weaker than the consensus 0.1% growth forecast provided by the bank. Manufacturing, wholesale and retail sales in July point to weaker activity, although manufacturing GDP was likely broadly flat, wrote RBC in the Friday note. Oil and natural gas output was also largely unchanged, while a rebound in housing supported real estate and rental activity. Flat July GDP poses downside risk to the bank's 1.8% annualized third-quarter growth forecast. However, other indicators remain resilient, such as hours worked rising 0.6% in August, job openings remaining relatively firm, and card spending and advance retail sales pointing to continued consumer strength, added RBC. A preliminary August GDP reading should offer a clearer view of economic activity following the breakdown of US-Canada trade talks and the United States' imposition of 50% tariffs on 5% of Canadian imports, according to the bank. Statistics Canada is slated to publish the July and preliminary August GDP on Tuesday, at 8:30 a.m. ET.