The 10-year US Treasury bond breaks historical levels, panic index surges by 10%

Gelonghui, September 28th｜The yield on the US 10-year Treasury has ended the downward trend that began in 1987 and is currently just below 5.25%, a level corresponding to the double top formed in 2006 and 2007. Once this threshold is breached, there is almost no significant resistance above, with the next target at 5.50%, followed by 5.90%. The 30-year US Treasury yield has already broken through its corresponding resistance level; if the current triangle consolidation pattern completes an upward breakout, the calculated target is around 6.7%. Meanwhile, the stock market has begun pricing in these changes. Bond market volatility has surged sharply, the VIX fear index has jumped by 10% to above 16, entering a mild uncertainty zone, but has not yet reached the key warning threshold of 20, so overall panic has not yet set in. Implied correlation is near historical lows, indicating that the market expects divergence in individual stock performances and index-level volatility to be dispersed. However, this also means that if macro risks intensify, the protection from diversification could quickly fail.