US-Iran Talks Affect Market, Nasdaq Futures Turn Higher, US Treasury Yields Fluctuate at High Levels, Gold and Oil Both Rise

Rising oil prices and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike have pushed U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels in years, driving global stock markets down to a one-week low.

On Tuesday, the MSCI World Index fell 0.2%, hitting its lowest since September 18. Nasdaq futures turned positive after dropping as much as 0.5% earlier; European stocks were mixed, while Japanese and Korean indices closed lower. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed another 1 basis point to 5.25% after hitting a high not seen since 2007 on Monday; the 30-year yield also rose 1 basis point to 5.56%.

On the geopolitical front, according to CCTV International News, the Iranian Foreign Minister will return to Tehran to await a U.S. response. Brent crude extended gains for a second day, up 1.2% to $99; spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,145 per ounce. Climbing oil prices, robust U.S. commercial activity, and concerns over high government debt levels have triggered the largest U.S. bond sell-off since April 2025. Soaring yields have pushed up borrowing costs, putting economic growth and corporate earnings prospects under pressure.

Chris Larkin of Morgan Stanley's E*Trade said that the overall market lacks momentum due to rising yields and oil prices. Given the Federal Reserve’s current focus on inflation, unless this week’s labor market data surprises significantly, market performance may continue to lag behind rates and the energy market.

Key market moves are as follows:

• Nasdaq futures turned positive after losing 0.5% earlier. U.S. tech hardware stocks were slightly higher in pre-market trading; Micron Technology rose 1.6%, SK Hynix and SanDisk rose 1.4%.

• Euro Stoxx 50 opened up 0.27%, Germany's DAX fell 0.13%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.19%, and France's CAC 40 added 0.06%.

• Japan's Nikkei 225 closed down 0.6% at 65,481.27. The Topix Index fell 1.7% to 4,041.13. The KOSPI index in Korea closed 0.27% lower at 6,870.81.

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point to 5.25%.

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.1%.

• Spot gold gained 0.7% to $4,145 per ounce.

• Brent crude climbed 1.2% to $99 per barrel.

Nasdaq Futures Turn Positive, U.S. Treasury Yields Fluctuate at High Levels

Nasdaq futures turned positive after earlier falling 0.5%. According to Capital.com Senior Market Analyst Kyle Rodda, strong corporate earnings will continue to support equities, helping offset pressures from rising bond yields and AI valuation risks.

This week, traders will closely monitor a series of key U.S. economic releases to assess whether the economy is still strong enough to support further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. The consumer confidence index and August JOLTS job openings data are due Tuesday, followed by consumer spending, inflation reports, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to its highest since 2007 on Monday and rose another basis point to 5.25% today. After recent bond market sell-offs, some investors are turning bullish on bonds.

Long-term bond investor Chris Iggo said after four tough years, the bond market is set to rebound. Wall Street veteran Jim Bianco turned bullish on Treasuries for the first time in six years, stating, “This is value investing. If yields go higher, I will keep buying.”

Gold Rebounds, Oil Rises, Iran Confirms 'Seven-Day Plan' Sent to U.S. and Awaits Response

Gold prices rose 0.7% to $4,145 per ounce. Earlier, during Asian trade, gold prices broke below the key $4,230 support level, triggering technical selling and further dipping below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, retreating near August’s lows.

This wave of declines was driven by multiple factors: U.S. real interest rates climbed to the highest in 18 years, Chinese investors closed positions ahead of the National Day holiday, and Trump’s rejection of Iran’s ceasefire proposal heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Adam Gillard, a precious metals expert at Goldman Sachs, said these factors combined created “one-way downward pressure” on gold. The market’s focus remains on ETF fund flows, which are currently a key variable in offsetting rate pressures.

Brent crude climbed 1.2% to $99. On the geopolitical front, citing Iran's Mehr News Agency as reported by CCTV International News today (September 29), Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi explained in a media interview one of his primary goals in attending the 81st United Nations General Assembly in New York: to convey Iran’s stance on matters of war—particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz—to the world.

Araghchi also confirmed that he met again with Qatari mediators that day and relayed the “Seven-Day Plan” to the U.S. via Qatar, awaiting a formal response from the U.S. through the mediation channel. When asked if he would stay in New York to wait for the U.S. reply, Araghchi stated that he would leave for Tehran, and the Qatari side knows how to convey any response to Iran once received.