Brazil’s supply increase suppresses Arabica coffee, cocoa and sugar show divergent trends

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智通财经2026/09/29 13:36

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Arabica coffee futures fell on Tuesday, giving back the previous trading day’s technically-driven gains, as further signs of increased supply from top producer Brazil emerged.
Arabica coffee dropped 2.2% to $2.8245 per pound, after closing up 3.6% on Monday.
Brazil’s coffee exports in September are set to hit a record high, with shipments so far up 34% year on year. The country is completing an expected record 2026 coffee harvest, which is putting overall pressure on coffee prices.
However, quality concerns mean that actual available supply may be disappointing, and technical signals have triggered some selling as well.
Robusta coffee fell 0.9% to $3,382 per ton.
London cocoa fell 2.8% to £4,059 per ton, after closing down 0.7% on Monday.
Lindt & Spruengli said that Europe’s summer heatwave and rising chocolate prices have weakened demand, and the company cut its 2026 sales forecast for the second time this year.
On the other hand, main producing countries Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana are still experiencing insufficient rainfall, sparking concerns over the upcoming main season crop. New York cocoa fell 2.8% to $5,637 per ton.
Raw sugar rose 1.2% to 17.68 cents per pound, after falling 0.2% on Monday.
According to Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade, the country’s sugar exports so far in September are down 9.3% due to excessive rainfall and increased ethanol production. Brazil’s 2026 sugar harvest is expected to decline.
The EU crop monitoring agency MARS cut its 2026 sugar beet yield forecast by 17%, saying rain arrived too late to reverse the damage from this summer’s high temperatures and drought. White sugar rose 1% to $509.10 per ton.
Overall, coffee is under pressure from increased supply, while cocoa and sugar are affected by weakening demand and damaged supply, respectively. Market sentiment is divided depending on their fundamentals. Going forward, attention will be on Brazil’s export pace and weather changes in the main producing countries.

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Brazil’s supply increase suppresses Arabica coffee, cocoa and sugar show divergent trends

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