US Stock Market Preview | The three major stock index futures are mixed; PCE data to be released soon; Micron (MU.US) earnings report to be announced after the market

Pre-market Market Movements

1. Pre-market on Wednesday, September 30, U.S. stock index futures showed mixed movements. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.01%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.03%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.09%.

2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index fell 0.13%, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.07%, France's CAC40 dropped 0.53%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.28%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 1.51% to $90.73 per barrel. Brent crude climbed 1.76% to $97.85 per barrel.

Market News

U.S. August PCE may disappoint again! Core inflation expected to remain stubborn; evidence that the Federal Reserve "does not need to hike again" may be hard to find. According to market forecasts, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge—August's overall PCE and core PCE (excluding food and energy) are both expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month. Year-over-year, overall PCE is projected to rise 3.7% and core PCE 3.3%, both unchanged from July and still far above the Fed's 2% target. In other words, there is almost no sign that inflation will subside in the short term. This means that after a rate hike in September, the debate over whether to act again in October or December will only become more intense.

U.S. mortgage rates rise for six consecutive weeks, severely hitting refinancing and home-buying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index shows that weekly mortgage demand fell by 6%. Last week, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages rose from 7.12% to 7.30%. For loans with a 20% down payment, loan points including origination fees climbed from 0.73 to 0.75. Refinancing demand was hit the hardest, as few borrowers benefit in the current higher-rate environment. Refinance applications for the week dropped 9% and were 56% lower than a year ago. The refinancing share of total mortgage activity declined from 39.3% to 38.3% from the prior week. MBA economist Joel Kan stated, "Government-backed refinancing fell 13%, with FHA and VA loan applications both showing double-digit weekly drops."

JPMorgan: Middle East oil exports have returned to 90% of prewar levels. According to a new report by JPMorgan, as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline resumes operation, Middle Eastern oil exports are rapidly rebounding. Over the past five days, the region's crude and refined product exports' 10-day moving average stayed around 20.5 million barrels/day, equivalent to 89% of the normal 2025 level and just about 11% below prewar levels. However, the recovery is not even. Crude exports rebounded to 17.5 million barrels/day, representing 98% of prewar levels, showing that the crude oil market has basically normalized. Refined product exports remain at about 3 million barrels/day, or just 58% of normal, with diesel and jet fuel supplies still clearly constrained. JPMorgan emphasizes that the resumption of transportation does not mean an improved security situation; rather, the energy industry is increasingly able to maintain operations amid a high-risk environment. The largest remaining gap in the Middle Eastern oil market has shifted from crude to refined products.

Iran says it has received a U.S. response regarding reopening the Strait of Hormuz proposal. On the 30th, Iranian government spokesperson Mohajerani stated at a cabinet meeting that Foreign Minister Aragchi reported on his trip to New York and a series of meetings, including Iran's proposal submitted to the U.S. via a mediator to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Aragchi said a response from the U.S. side had been received, but further details have not yet been disclosed. On the 28th, Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi announced that Iran had submitted conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and advancing talks via Qatari mediation, and Qatar would transfer the plan to the U.S., with Iran awaiting a formal U.S. response. On the same day, U.S. President Trump confirmed that the U.S. and Iran were exchanging messages via a mediator but denied reports that he was willing to conditionally lift sanctions on Iran.

Several U.S. tech companies sign artificial intelligence safety self-regulation agreement. On September 29 local time, executives from several U.S. tech companies signed a document at the White House called the "White House Superintelligence Agreement: Joint Frontier Responsibility Commitment." The agreement requires companies to strengthen safety management of advanced AI models. Participating companies will also convene regularly to study and develop relevant standards and industry norms.

Company News

Wall Street holds its breath: will Micron (MU.US)'s earnings surprise? Driven by a strong AI wave, Micron Technology is set to release highly anticipated financial results after Wednesday's close, with the market broadly expecting a stellar report. According to Visible Alpha, Micron's fiscal Q4 revenue is expected to reach $50.95 billion, up 350% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $31.63, more than ten times the same period last year. JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur noted that investors should pay attention to possible “unexpected surprises” from management—such as a major new capital return plan, which typically means large share buybacks or increased dividend payouts. Micron shares rose 0.3% pre-market.

Reports say Apple (AAPL.US) is making a big push into the smart home market. According to reports, Apple plans a major entry into the smart home market on October 13, marking a key product line expansion under new CEO Tenus. Sources reveal that the core of this strategy is a smart home control device codenamed J490. Apple also plans to release the first update to the HomePod mini since its debut in 2020 and the first new Apple TV set-top box since 2022. These products will also showcase the new Siri AI assistant that Apple has spent years developing. Although the upgraded Siri launch was delayed multiple times, the smart home devices are expected to highlight Apple’s renewed push into AI. The home control device will feature a roughly 6-inch square display and offer both wall-mounted and desktop versions. The new HomePod mini and Apple TV will retain current designs but feature faster processors to support Siri’s more powerful AI models.

Reportedly, Meta (META.US) applies for large R&D tax credits via AI data centers. Meta is leveraging the U.S. research and experimentation tax credit policy to apply for billions of dollars in incentives for its AI data centers. The company described its multibillion-dollar data center projects as “experimental R&D activities” and claimed that AI computing chips purchased from vendors such as Nvidia are considered experimental expenses, thus qualifying for the credits. Documents show that last year, this policy helped Meta cut its tax bill by nearly $4 billion, making it one of the largest beneficiaries among public companies. However, Meta’s internal accountants have warned of legal risks, as the IRS may challenge these applications. BPM tax partner Andre Shevchuck stated that classifying AI data centers as R&D experimental projects “goes beyond the norm.” The IRS has previously scrutinized companies for including regular business expenses in R&D credit claims. Meta shares fell 0.4% pre-market.

Tesla (TSLA.US) signs $30 billion financing arrangements, including revolving credit and delayed draw term loan. According to filings with the SEC, Tesla (TSLA.US) has signed several financing arrangements, including a $20 billion three-year delayed draw term loan facility, $8 billion five-year revolving credit facility, and $2 billion 364-day revolving credit facility. The company also terminated its prior revolving credit agreement. The new five-year revolving credit allows for up to $500 million in letters of credit, and the three-year delayed draw term loan facility matures on September 29, 2029. Additionally, Tesla's revolving credit lines can be increased by up to $4 billion, for a total of $14 billion. Tesla shares dropped 0.6% pre-market.

The AI computing power race heats up! Anthropic discloses $84.5 billion deal, much higher than May estimates; SpaceX (SPCX.US) AI growth engine speeds up again. According to reports, global AI model and application leader Anthropic has signed an agreement to pay up to $84.5 billion to use AI computing resources from SpaceX (SPCX.US), the AI + space exploration leader founded and led by Musk, through 2029. This means Anthropic agreed to pay nearly twice the previously estimated amount for computing power from SpaceX, underscoring the strategic value of timely available and stable compute clusters as commercial AI model deployment accelerates. This figure is far higher than the deal size disclosed in May. SpaceX's IPO filing revealed that Anthropic agreed to pay $1.25 billion per month for AI computing, for a maximum of three years. The agreement can be canceled with 90 days notice. If executed in full for three years, the total would be about $45 billion.

Boeing (BA.US) wins again: defeats Northrop Grumman (NOC.US) for U.S. Navy 6th-gen F/A-XX fighter contract worth $20 billion. The U.S. Department of Defense announced Tuesday that Boeing (BA.US) was selected to build the U.S. Navy's next-generation stealth fighter. This marks Boeing's second consecutive major fighter jet contract win and puts an end to months of delays for this strategically vital Pacific project. Boeing beat rival Northrop Grumman (NOC.US) for the development contract, valued at $20 billion for prototype aircraft production. As capacity ramps up and potential overseas orders come in, the program's total life-cycle value could rise into the hundreds of billions of dollars. Boeing shares rose over 2% pre-market.

Robinhood (HOOD.US) launches innovative products: weekend stock trading, performance contracts, and crypto perpetual futures. Robinhood plans to roll out weekend stock trading, becoming the first in the modern U.S. market to do so. The broker, which pioneered extended retail trading hours, said Tuesday its customers will soon be able to trade a basket of selected stocks and ETFs on weekends, extending the current Sunday 8:00 p.m. to Friday 8:00 p.m. trading window further into the weekend. The feature will be enabled by routing orders to Bruce Markets trading venues. Robinhood's chief brokerage officer Steve Quirk said in a statement: "Breaking news doesn't wait for the opening bell." Robinhood shares rose 2.7% pre-market.

Key Economic Data and Event Preview

Beijing time 20:15, U.S. September ADP employment change

Beijing time 20:30, U.S. August personal spending month-on-month, U.S. August PCE price index year-on-year, U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year, U.S. Q2 actual GDP annualized QoQ final value, U.S. Q2 GDP deflator index QoQ final value, U.S. Q2 core PCE price index annualized QoQ final value, U.S. Q2 consumer spending annualized QoQ final value, U.S. Q2 implicit GDP deflator index QoQ, U.S. August wholesale inventory month-on-month initial value

Beijing time 21:45, U.S. September Chicago PMI

Beijing time 22:30, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending September 25, U.S. EIA gasoline inventory change for the week ending September 25, U.S. EIA distillate inventory change for the week ending September 25, U.S. EIA Oklahoma Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending September 25, U.S. EIA weekly crude oil import change for the week ending September 25

Beijing time 01:30 the next morning, 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin gives welcome remarks at an event

Beijing time 03:25 the next morning, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech

Beijing time 04:00 the next morning, Micron will release its earnings after the U.S. close

Beijing time 05:10 the next morning, 2027 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers remarks

Beijing time 06:00 the next morning, 2026 FOMC voting member, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari gives a speech