Detroit Three automakers set to lose market share to Asian rivals

Oct 1 (Reuters) - The Detroit Three are expected to lose ground to Asian rivals when they report third-quarter US sales this week, according to experts, as soaring gasoline prices due to the Iran war push buyers towards hybrids and more fuel-efficient models.

General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis could see their combined market share dip to around 36% in the third quarter, while hybrid-heavy Asian brands including Toyota and Honda are expected to account for more than half of new vehicle sales in the period, industry research firm Cox Automotive said.

Hybrids have emerged as a top choice as consumers look to avoid high gasoline prices, which hit a national average of $4.43 a gallon in September, according to AAA, compared with $3.20 a year earlier.

Toyota Motor Corporation 7203.T is seen benefiting the most from the shift, with its overall third-quarter sales expected to have jumped 2.2% from a year earlier.

While GM GM.N is expected to retain its top spot in the US market, Cox estimates its overall quarterly sales fell 5.2% from a year ago.

Hyundai Motor Group, meanwhile, is poised to surpass Ford F.N in quarterly US sales for the first time, with Cox forecasting 511,421 units sold, compared with Ford's 504,172.

Stellantis' STLAM.MI quarterly sales are estimated to have fallen by about 1% to 317,330 from a year earlier.

While borrowing costs have declined, this has done little to ease affordability pressures, said research firm JD Power, as higher new vehicle prices and lower trade-in values push monthly payments higher. The average transaction price for a new vehicle rose 1.9% to $50,089 in August from a year earlier, according to Cox.

"Higher-income buyers who aren't as squeezed by borrowing costs are likely doing the heavy lifting right now, while budget-conscious households are forced to hang onto older cars much longer," said Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds.

Cox estimates overall US sales in the quarter at about 4.1 million units, down about 1% from a year earlier.

(Reporting by Nathan Gomes in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda)

((Nathan.Gomes@thomsonreuters.com;))