Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0915 ET - RBC Capital Markets lowers Banco Santander's net interest income and fees forecasts and raises restructuring charge estimates for 2028, analyst Benjamin Toms writes. RBC reduces its target price on the stock to 13.25 euros from 13.50 previously, but reiterates its outperform recommendation. The Canadian bank lowers its 2028 adjusted pretax profit estimate for Santander by 2%, driven by a fall in Chile net interest income, along with lower revenue and higher costs in the rest of the group. This is partially offset by the Brazilian and Spanish divisions. RBC's 2028 estimate for reported return on tangible equity of 19.9% compares with Santander's guidance of over 20%. Shares are down 1.5% at 12.14 euros. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0731 ET - Citi boosts its 12-month bitcoin target price to $113,000 from $82,000 as debasement fears return to markets. Renewed investor concern that high government deficits could erode the value of fiat currencies is one reason behind the shift in thinking. Regulatory clarity is another. "Paradoxically, the failure of the Clarity Act which spurred agency rulemaking, helped crypto regain technical levels," the analysts say. Citi adds that ETF inflows should be relatively sticky and consistent as investors gradually adopt bitcoin into portfolios. Bitcoin is 0.2% higher at $83,898. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)

0506 ET - Ether's exchange-traded fund picture is cooling, not collapsing, after an inflow streak came to an end, Zaye Capital Markets' chief investment officer, Naeem Aslam, writes. "Institutional participation remains substantial rather than disappearing," he says. U.S. spot ether ETFs recorded net outflows of $2.8 million on Tuesday. The move broke a seven-day inflow streak totaling over $850 million. "Consistent ETF buying helps absorb available ether supply in the spot market and can provide a structural support layer when speculative activity weakens," he adds. Ether is up 0.15% at $2,685. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)

0455 ET - CaixaBank faces a near-term headwind to net interest income, which should be temporary, while artificial intelligence disruption will be a gradual process, UBS' Ignacio Cerezo and Alvaro Fernandez-Garayzabal write. The Spanish bank's share price has weakened recently due to short-term net interest income uncertainty and fears about deposit margins due to the AI threat. The bank will face a temporary drag in the second half of 2026 as liabilities reprice faster than assets, but increased deposit competition remains the main bottom-up risk. Investors also fear CaixaBank's deposits may be challenged by the rise of AI agents. "Having a definitive view about AI-led changes remains challenging, but we still see this as a gradual, rather than a fast-paced, process," UBS notes. Shares are down 3.2%.(michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0341 ET - The threat of artificial intelligence agents to European bank deposits and pricing is overblown but it could change how lenders think about customer relationships, Citi analysts write. Banking customers will use AI tools, but trust, reliability, transparency and regulatory constraints will limit the use of agents to source banking products. "Instead, we expect to see more customer AI tools embedded within each banks' own digital offering," Citi says. Banking subscription models, which offer discounts and loyalty rewards for tiered fees, are also likely to become more widespread, the analysts add. BBVA, CaixaBank and KBC are the best placed incumbent banks in Europe as they already lead with a relationship-based approach, Citi says. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0300 ET - The U.K. government budget will provide a distraction for U.K. banks in the third quarter, but the backdrop remains resilient, J.P. Morgan analysts write. A "modest" rise in the bank tax in this month's budget has been priced, JPM says. It sees a 2 percentage point increase in the surcharge to 5%, but notes there are mixed reports about this. Despite this, gross domestic product and labor market trends are favorable for the U.K's banks. In the upcoming round of third-quarter results, there will be a focus on the sustainability of volume momentum, margin dynamics and cost messaging, the analysts write. There is the most upside to consensus expectations for Lloyds and NatWest, but the budget will set the tone, JPM adds. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0147 ET - AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) faces a 2Q FY 2027 earnings hit from likely higher credit costs due to Thailand's weakening economic outlook, says Thanawat Thangchadakorn at UOB Kay Hian in a research report. Its credit costs are expected to increase to 953 bps in 2Q FY 2027 from 745 bps in 1Q FY 2027, and its non-performing loan ratio could rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in 1Q FY 2027, the analyst estimates. There are also asset-quality concerns over the non-bank consumer finance operator's hire-purchase loans in Cambodia. The brokerage lowers the stock's target price to 20.00 baht from 125.00 baht but keeps a buy rating. Shares are 0.5% lower at 91.50 baht. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2152 ET - Higher global rates could be a headwind for Malaysian banks, with weaker bond valuations likely to weigh on earnings and capital, Citi analyst Yong Hong Tan says in a note. Higher U.S. rates could also keep more deposits in foreign currencies, driving up ringgit deposit rates and funding costs, he adds. The 10-year Malaysian government securities yield rose 42 basis points on quarter in 3Q, potentially affecting banks' capital and trading income, he says. August data showed banks lengthening deposit maturities while average lending rates fell, pointing to further margin pressure, he reckons. Citi recommends a barbell approach, favoring CIMB for potential capital releases and Public Bank for dividend and wealth-management opportunities. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2116 ET - Australian business lending will prove more durable for major banks than the market expects, UBS analysts reckon. Parsing regulators' industry data, the analysts observe that business lending continued to grow strongly in August despite an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, outpacing housing lending. They tell clients in a note that Commonwealth Bank and ANZ were the strongest of the majors in business lending, with the former capturing 28% of flow. ANZ captured 15% and regional lenders grew above the majors in business lending, they add. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2105 ET - Malaysian banks could face a cautious outlook heading into 4Q, with limited scope for meaningful profit-margin recovery until 1Q 2027, says Hong Leong IB analyst Raymond Ng in a note. System loan growth remained resilient with a 5.7% increase in August, supported by stronger business lending and drawdowns, while asset quality remained broadly stable, he notes. However, lending spreads narrowed as average lending rates fell faster than deposit rates, with renewed deposit competition expected from November potentially delaying margin recovery, he says. Higher Malaysian government securities yields could also weigh on banks' fee-related income, while the KLCI's expansion may create temporary fund-flow pressure, he adds. Hong Leong maintains its neutral rating on Malaysia's banking sector, with Public Bank its top defensive pick for 4Q. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2102 ET - Macquarie investors are already paying for a substantial portion of the Australian financial-services provider's superior franchise and growth optionality, UBS analysts say. They acknowledge that earnings risks remain positively skewed as it prepares to change CEO, but observe that the stock is already trading at elevated historical multiples. Going forward, they think that investors will be increasingly focused on Macquarie's ability to further improve operating leverage view. They wonder if new CEO Greg Ward can genuinely make Macquarie more competitive on costs. UBS keeps a neutral rating on the stock and lifts its target price 6.0% to 265.00 Australian dollars. Shares are down 0.1% at A$245.78. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1240 ET - Higher mortgage rates are reshaping the fall housing market, Realtor.com says, pushing more sellers to reduce prices while fewer buyers move forward with a purchase. The share of active listings with a price reduction rose to 20.8% in September, up 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier. Active inventory grew 5.4% year over year to almost 1.2M homes. The stock of homes under contract declined 4.1%. September's data shows that buyers are gaining leverage, but higher mortgage rates are limiting how much of that opportunity they can use, Realtor.com says. The national median list price was $419,250 in September, down 1.2% from August and 1.4% from a year ago. Homes spent a median of 61 days on the market--one day longer than in August but one day fewer than a year earlier, Realtor.com says. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 01, 2026 12:20 ET (16:20 GMT)