Next Week Preview: Federal Reserve Minutes, PMI and Iran Situation Will Dominate Market Trends

1. Next week, the minutes from the September meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, S&P services and composite PMI final readings from major economies, developments in the European bond market, and progress in the US-Iran conflict will be the main market-driving factors. 2. In the United States, the economic calendar includes the September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, S&P Services PMI final reading, August trade data, weekly initial jobless claims, as well as the preliminary October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September 15-16 policy meeting on Wednesday, during which interest rates were raised by 25 basis points. The market will be looking for clues on policy outlook and the timing of further tightening. Fed officials Logan and Musalem will deliver speeches, and New York Fed President Williams will host a discussion. 3. Data from the eurozone will be relatively light, including final readings for September services and composite PMIs, August producer price index, and retail sales. Germany will release its September PMI, August industrial orders, industrial production, and trade data. The European Central Bank is set to release the minutes of its September meeting on Thursday, during which it also raised rates by 25 basis points. The UK will publish its final September PMI reading. 4. Major Japanese data include the September PMI, August consumer confidence index, current account, overtime pay, and household spending. Canada’s September employment report, to be released on Friday, will be a key event for commodity-linked currencies. 5. Other data include Australia’s S&P PMI, Canada’s August trade balance, and New Zealand’s third quarter business confidence. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr will speak on Thursday, and Assistant Governor Silk will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy trade-offs on Friday.