Last week, U.S. Treasury yields hit a 24-year high, intensifying the global bond market sell-off.

智通财经2026/10/04 23:06

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1. Last week, a new wave of sell-offs swept across the global bond market, pushing borrowing costs in major economies to multi-decade highs. As a key benchmark for global borrowing costs and asset prices, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note once climbed to 5.358%, the highest since 2002, before pulling back to around 5.26%. Over the three months ending in September, the 10-year US Treasury yield recorded its largest quarterly gain of the century. 2. Bond yields move inversely to prices and have generally risen worldwide due to surging energy costs driving up inflation. The booming development of artificial intelligence and data center construction has further intensified competition for capital, fueling expectations for economic growth and the eventual trajectory of short-term interest rates. Danny Zaid, Portfolio Manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, stated that rising yields will gradually tighten financial conditions and could increase the risk of an economic slowdown, but the overall economic fundamentals currently remain strong. 3. Higher interest rates increase financing costs for corporations and mortgage borrowers, while also forcing governments to ramp up interest spending. The pressure is not limited to the US. French 10-year government bond yields reached their highest level since 2002, nearing 5%, as the French government prepares to submit its 2027 budget, whose austerity measures may struggle to secure parliamentary support. The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds has hit its widest since the eurozone debt crisis of the 2010s, and the cost of insuring against French government debt default has climbed to its highest since 2013. 4. The yield on UK 30-year government bonds has surged above 6%, the highest since 1998. In Japan, sovereign bond yields have posted double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, setting new records. The Institute of International Finance recently estimated that developed economies have paid over $3.3 trillion in interest on internationally traded government bonds over the past year. 5. Last month, factory activity in Europe and Asia expanded thanks to investments related to artificial intelligence, making central banks in these regions less concerned about the impacts of policy tightening. J. Safra Sarasin fixed income analyst Alfonso Borges noted that stronger economic growth has led markets to believe economies can withstand higher interest rates for longer. Traders have reversed previous expectations of US rate cuts this year and now anticipate the Federal Reserve will raise rates at least three more times by mid-2027. However, the US inflation data released on September 30th was milder, lowering market expectations for a near-term rate hike. Last week, European inflation data surpassed forecasts; the European Central Bank has raised rates twice so far this year, and markets expect three more 25-basis-point rate hikes by mid-2027.

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