Don’t Just Focus on the Tech Sector! Goldman Sachs Bets on These 10 Energy Stocks, Up as Much as 151% This Year and Still Recommends Buying

According to Zhitong Finance APP, entering the fourth quarter of 2026, Goldman Sachs has identified four main investment themes in the energy and power sector: sustained oil & gas E&P momentum, U.S. power and LNG topics, upside potential in the refining sector, and sentiment-driven mispricing in midstream and upstream natural gas. Based on these, Goldman has selected 10 stocks with attractive risk-reward ratios.

Based on the closing prices as of October 7, the average total return potential for these ten stocks is about 27%, with an average year-to-date increase of 42%.

Theme 1: Sustained Oil & Gas E&P Momentum—Focus on Free Cash Flow Turning Point

Goldman’s top pick under this theme is ConocoPhillips (COP.US), with a latest target price of $146. The company is approaching a $7 billion free cash flow inflection, with the NFE, NFS, Port Arthur, and Willow projects coming online successively. Coupled with $1 billion in cost reductions, it’s expected to achieve 20%-25% compound annual growth in per-share free cash flow under the long-term assumption of Brent crude at $75/barrel. About 45% of operating cash flow will be returned to shareholders, reaching close to 50% in the second half of 2026. Near-term catalysts include Willow’s winter construction and the initial production of Qatar NFE’s first LNG line in early 2027.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) has a latest target price of $69, upgraded by Goldman Sachs from “Neutral” to “Buy” on August 30 and added to the Americas Conviction List: The company expects an average free cash flow yield of about 13% for 2027/2028, higher than the industry average of 11%. It plans to add $4 billion in sustainable cash flow by 2030, with conventional and unconventional resources totaling over 4 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and aims to achieve the $10 billion principal debt target by early 2027.

Permian Resources (PR.US) latest target price is $27: Despite a 58% YTD increase, Goldman still expects about 20% CPS free cash flow CAGR from 2025 to 2028. A 16% free cash flow yield is notably higher than oily peers’ 13%. The $1.05 billion in accretive acquisitions this year, along with warming Waha gas prices in the Permian Basin, provide additional upside.

Theme 2: U.S. Power & LNG Topics—Grid & Data Center Construction as Core Drivers

Quanta Services (PWR.US) latest target price is $902: Goldman believes it is a core beneficiary of grid and data center construction, with 765-kilovolt large-scale transmission projects continually rolled out. Power business accounts for about 80% of revenue, and a 15% revenue CAGR is expected before 2030, with the target price implying a 30x forward EV multiple.

Duke Energy (DUK.US) latest target price is $147: The company is relatively immune to election risks (its largest jurisdiction, North Carolina, has no gubernatorial race this year). It holds a pipeline of about 15.4 GW of high-confidence load, with about 7.8 GW under power supply agreements and about 5.2 GW under construction. Management may guide EPS growth up from 5-7%, as Goldman expects about 8% EPS CAGR, higher than the market consensus of about 7%.

Baker Hughes (BKR.US) latest target price is $71: Goldman is optimistic about synergies and after-sales service following the consolidation of Chart Industries. Industrial & Energy Technology (IET) EBITDA margin is expected to rise to about 25% by 2031.

Golar LNG (GLNG.US) latest target price is $67, with total return potential of about 38%, the highest among the top ten picks: Goldman expects existing assets to achieve around $1.2 billion in run-rate EBITDA around 2030 (about $260 million in 2025). Each additional MKII floating liquefied natural gas vessel is expected to contribute about $400 million in EBITDA. The fourth vessel may soon secure a commercial contract, and ongoing strategic evaluations could include a sale, representing an undervalued market option.

Theme 3: Refining Sector Still Has Upside—Focusing on Niche Market Leaders

HF Sinclair (DINO.US) has surged 151% YTD, with Goldman still maintaining a 6-month target price of $142, implying a total return of about 25%. The rationale is its focus on niche markets in the Rocky Mountains and Heartland, and its stable non-refining profits. Free cash flow yields for 2027/2028 are expected to be around 11% and 6%, and changes in Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) rules add further option value. Goldman believes recent market worries over CEO transition and lower refining spreads provide an entry window.

Theme 4: Midstream and Upstream Natural Gas Mispricing—Entry Point for Quality Names

TC Energy (TRP.US) latest target price is $71: The stock has fallen 9% in the past three months (vs a 2% drop in the midstream index), and Goldman believes its U.S. natural gas pipeline projects and Ontario nuclear assets are undervalued. There is potential for 2025-2032 EBITDA CAGR of about 6% to be revised higher, with C$6-11 billion in capital expenditures awaiting approval before 2030. The current share price corresponds to a 13x forward P/E, lower than the peer average of 16x, with a dividend yield of about 4.5%.

Antero Resources (AR.US) latest target price is $46: The company plans to reduce cash costs from $2.70/mcf equivalent in 2025 to $2.00 by the end of 2028. Terminating high-cost transportation contracts could improve margins by about $300 million, with potential to expand to $600-700 million in the following years. Its 14% free cash flow yield is much higher than the Appalachia peer average of 9%, and it is in talks with power and data center customers for multi-year gas supply contracts.