This Week’s Key Macro Outlook for U.S. Stocks (October 12–October 16)
2026/10/12 03:11
October 12 (Monday)
- IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings open in Bangkok, running through October 18. Finance ministers and central bank officials will discuss the global economy, inflation, and financial stability.
- 14:00: EU foreign ministers meet in Luxembourg to discuss the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East situation, and the security implications of EU enlargement.
- U.S. stock markets and CME Treasury futures trade normally; the cash bond market is closed for the full day.
October 13 (Tuesday)
- 15:45: Fed Governor Waller speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum; Cleveland Fed President Hammack also speaks the same day.
- 20:15: ADP weekly employment change for the week ending September 26 is released; 22:00: September existing home sales (annualized) are released.
- JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo report Q3 earnings; UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson, and Domino’s Pizza release results before the market open.
- 21:00: Apple holds a smart home product launch event in New York; OPEC publishes its monthly oil market report.
October 14 (Wednesday)
- ★★★★★ 20:30 Beijing time: U.S. September CPI and core CPI are released — a key variable for October and December rate hike expectations. Current market pricing shows roughly 19% probability of a hike in October and full pricing for December.
- 4:00: Boston Fed President Collins speaks; 17:40: Fed Governor Bowman speaks; IEA publishes its monthly oil market report.
- Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and ASML report Q3 earnings.
- Anthropic may hold a pre-IPO investor day event.
October 15 (Thursday)
- 2:00 Beijing time: Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions.
- 20:30: Weekly initial jobless claims (week ending October 10), September retail sales, September PPI and core PPI, and New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes are released; 22:00: August business inventories month-over-month are released.
- TSMC reports Q3 earnings; Alcoa releases results after the market close.
- G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting takes place; Tesla holds a Roadster event.
October 16 (Friday)
- 11:30: Fed Chair Warsh attends the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok and holds a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva. Focus will be on his interpretation of CPI, PPI, and retail sales, as well as any comments on a potential December rate hike.
- 4:30: Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks; 20:30: September import price index month-over-month is released; 21:15: September industrial production month-over-month is released.
- Apple iPhone Duo pre-sales begin.
This week’s core themes for U.S. stocks center on a dense schedule of Fed officials speaking ahead of the blackout period and Warsh’s IMF remarks, the release of U.S. September CPI/PPI/retail sales, and the start of Q3 earnings from major Wall Street banks plus ASML and TSMC (FactSet estimates S&P 500 Q3 earnings growth of about 29.5% year-over-year and revenue growth of about 12.3%). Market volatility is expected to increase.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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