Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) merger countdown? Barclays: Announcement possible this year, obstacle lies in shareholder voting

According to Golden Ten Data, Barclays analysts have indicated that a merger between Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) may be announced before the electric vehicle manufacturer's annual shareholder meeting.

The analyst team, led by Dan Levy, expects the 2026 shareholder meeting to be held no later than December 6. They added that while such a merger would bring some financial synergies, the real value lies in the vertical integration of the two companies’ artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.

"The possibility of a Tesla/SpaceX merger has increasingly become a market consensus expectation," the analysts wrote in a report sent to clients on Wednesday. "Although the announcement of a Tesla/SpaceX merger may be delayed until late October or even early November, we believe that if it is postponed to this time window, it will be significantly more difficult to complete merger approval at the shareholder meeting."

Investors and analysts have long widely anticipated a merger between these two Musk-led firms, especially after SpaceX completed a record-breaking initial public offering this year. In January, it was reported that SpaceX had considered a merger with Tesla but ultimately decided to acquire Musk's AI startup, xAI.

As of Wednesday's close, Tesla’s stock price had fallen 2.15%, while SpaceX shares dropped 2.80%.

It is understood that there are already several business connections and overlapping investor groups between SpaceX and Tesla, and both companies are headed by Musk. The rocket manufacturer has purchased over $100 million worth of Tesla Cybertrucks, and xAI is an important customer of Tesla’s utility-scale batteries.

The two companies are also collaborating on a chip manufacturing project called Terafab, which will produce semiconductors for Tesla's electric vehicles, autonomous robotaxis, and the Optimus robot, as well as a chip specifically designed for use in SpaceX orbital AI satellites.

Recently, Musk has discussed multiple ways in which his two largest companies can interact and integrate. In a recent earnings call, he stated that Tesla and SpaceX have "overlap in many areas."

Barclays noted that the main obstacle for any deal would be shareholder votes, as shareholders of both Tesla and SpaceX would likely need to approve the merger.

"In Tesla’s 2025 annual shareholder meeting vote, approximately 11% of total outstanding votes were 'broker non-votes,' which are effectively counted as 'against.' We expect Tesla to try to increase shareholder participation in any potential SpaceX merger vote," the analysts wrote.