This October, capital flows seem to prefer Bitcoin despite the overall risk-off mood.
Technically, it means that capital is not rotating into altcoins as the textbook fear rotation would suggest. Ethereum dominance fell 5% this month, and Bitcoin dominance increased 2.5% this month, highlighting a clear shift in market preference toward BTC.
Then, what does this imply about the SOL/ETH momentum?
The ratio jumped over 11% during the last two months but decreased by more than 2.3% so far this month. Thus, Solana seems to have difficulty gaining any significant ground against Ethereum despite the relative weakness of the latter.
Moreover, the ratio now encounters resistance at the critical level of 0.05.
Why is Solana’s activity lead missing from SOL/ETH?
That said, on-chain data tell a different story.
According to data from Token Terminal, Ethereum has only recorded around 28 million transactions so far this month, compared to over 6 billion on Solana.
The key takeaway?
Notably, this divergence is beginning to show in social sentiment.
Data shows Solana has overtaken Ethereum in Social Engagements, with 29.7 million engagements over the past 24 hours compared to ETH’s 28.91 million. In addition, Solana has overtaken Ethereum in Creator Activity, with 24.4k creators compared with 23k for ETH.
This suggests that there is growing social traction for SOL, even as its relative price momentum against ETH remains weak.
The key question is: Why is the market still betting on the SOL/ETH setup despite capital flows favoring Bitcoin and ETH demonstrating better price momentum than Solana [SOL]?
According to AMBCrypto, this is where Solana’s divergence in transaction activity begins to matter.
Could Solana’s fees support a SOL/ETH recovery?
High transaction activity can generate fees, giving the activity comparison an economic dimension.
Solana’s Monthly Fees reached around $20 million in recent months, with October already recording $15 million. Ethereum generated approximately $8 million in fees over the comparable October period.
However, the supply implications required a closer look.
Solana burned half its Base Fees, while validators received all Priority Fees. Higher total fees therefore offered an incomplete supply picture.
The accompanying Blockworks chart put Solana’s Burn Rate at 2.2%, its highest since early 2025. That reading alone did not establish that SOL’s supply was shrinking or that burns exceeded new issuance.
What could Ethereum’s staking queues mean for SOL?
Meanwhile, the staking dynamics of Ethereum [ETH] are adding another layer to the SOL/ETH setup.
According to ValidatorQueue, ETH’s entry queue has fallen from 3 million in early May to 1.23 million. At the same time, the exit queue has jumped from around 103,000 to over 1 million, suggesting that demand for new staking deposits is cooling and there is a surge in the number of validators waiting to unstake their ETH.
In short, the SOL/ETH ratio is showing a divergence between tightening supply and cautious market demand. If this trend holds, Solana’s growing burn rate and Ethereum’s increasing staking exit queue could strengthen SOL’s relative performance and set the stage for a breakout above the 0.05 level.
Final Summary
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Solana’s high transaction activity and rising burn rate are helping tighten SOL’s supply, even as its price struggles against ETH.
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Ethereum’s rising staking exit queue could give SOL an edge and support a potential SOL/ETH breakout above 0.05.
