Russia's wheat planting area continues to decline, attracting attention to its future production and export potential

(1) The area planted with wheat in Russia has declined for four consecutive seasons, as farmers are shifting to more profitable crops due to low wheat margins. (2) The area planted with winter wheat decreased from about 17.8 million hectares in 2021 to about 16.1 million hectares in 2026, while spring wheat dropped from about 10.2 million hectares to around 8.9 million hectares, with a total decrease of roughly 3 million hectares. (3) At the same time, the corn acreage increased from about 5.8 million hectares to approximately 7.3 million hectares, sunflower seed from about 4.2 million hectares to around 5.4 million hectares, and legumes from about 1.1 million hectares to about 1.6 million hectares. (4) Profitability for corn and sunflower seed is reportedly higher by about 40% to 60%, accelerating the shift away from wheat farming. (5) There are warnings that the potential loss in Russian wheat output for the 2027/28 marketing year could reach about 14 to 18 million tons, including possible damage to winter crops. (6) Tightening supply may drive Russia’s domestic wheat prices up to around 13.5 thousand to 17 thousand rubles per ton. (7) A deeper risk is that once farmers finish adjusting their crop rotation structures, price increases may not quickly recover lost wheat acreage. (8) Subsequent attention will focus on changes in the volume of Russian wheat available for export and its impact on the competitive landscape of the global grain market.