Strategy (MSTR.US) triggers its first “golden cross” signal in over three years; last time it appeared, shares soared by 700%!

According to information from Zhishang Finance APP, Strategy (MSTR.US) has flashed its first "Golden Cross" since March 2023—a bullish technical signal that occurs when the 50-day simple moving average rises above the 200-day moving average. The last time this pattern appeared, the stock surged nearly 700% over the following 12 months. This signal could potentially attract momentum traders back to this Bitcoin proxy stock.

However, the technical pattern remains fragile. Strategy's 50-day moving average sits at $135.67, only slightly above the 200-day average of $135.53, while the stock is trading around $137.18. More importantly, the stock price is still below its 20-day moving average of $147.40—around 7.5% above the current price—which poses a significant near-term resistance for any sustained rebound.

Momentum indicators offer little confirmation: RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 42.89, below the neutral threshold of 50; MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) reads -3.72, in negative territory.

Beyond the Chart: Dual Pressures from the Index and Capital Structure

Factors beyond the chart also cast a shadow over the outlook. The potential removal from the MSCI index has sparked concerns about passive fund selling pressure—a negative factor that could suppress the stock price regardless of Bitcoin's movements.

Strategy's capital structure adds another layer of complexity: The company funds its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation through equity issuances and other mechanisms, actions that dilute shareholder equity and affect how much upside truly accrues to shareholders.

For investors, the Golden Cross represents an encouraging structural shift in trend, rather than an immediate guarantee of gains. Until Strategy regains its 20-day moving average at $147.40 and shows signs of improved momentum, index-related risks and the costs of financing its Bitcoin strategy remain reasons to stay cautious.