Iran conflict impact, major exporter turns to imports: Qatar signs long-term deal with US to purchase 4 million tons of LNG annually until 2054

As one of the world’s leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters prior to the Iran conflict, Qatar has, for the first time, purchased natural gas from the US as a buyer, revealing a rare rupture in global energy trade flows caused by geopolitical tensions.

On Thursday the 22nd Eastern Time, Qatar’s state-owned oil and gas company QatarEnergy announced a long-term agreement with the US’s largest LNG exporter, Cheniere Energy, to purchase up to 4 million tons of LNG annually for more than twenty years. According to reports, this is Qatar’s first LNG offtake agreement with the US.

This deal was prompted by a disruption in Qatar’s own supply system. The domestic Ras Laffan Industrial City was damaged during the US-Israel-Iran conflict, forcing QatarEnergy to drastically reduce its exports. Combined with ongoing turbulence in the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar had to maintain contractual commitments to Asian customers and was compelled to use US capacity to fill its own shortfall.

For Cheniere, a super-long-term purchase agreement from a sovereign-grade buyer provides new validation for US LNG’s pricing power and market position. For the global market, the reversal of Middle Eastern exporters becoming importers indicates supply chain vulnerabilities are shifting from a theoretical risk to reality.

First Long-term US Deal: 2 LNG Plants, 2 Million Tons Each

QatarEnergy stated it has signed two long-term Sales and Purchase Agreements (SPA) with Cheniere, with the purchase volume reaching up to 4 million tons of LNG annually.

QatarEnergy will purchase 2 million tons annually from each of Cheniere’s liquefaction plants located in Sabine Pass, Louisiana, and Corpus Christi, Texas. The supply of 1 million tons per year from the Sabine Pass plant will depend on the final investment decision of the facility’s expansion phase, but the overall framework of the agreement has been established.

According to the terms, delivery will be on a Free On Board (FOB) basis and is expected to start in 2031, continuing through 2054.

QatarEnergy is also the major shareholder of the Golden Pass LNG export project in Texas, which is in its start-up phase, with ExxonMobil as another shareholder. This means Qatar’s role in the US LNG value chain is expanding from asset holder to actual purchaser.

Iran Conflict Leads to Qatar Supply Disruption

Qatar’s plight stems from two overlapping factors. First, its Ras Laffan Industrial City on the northeastern coast was attacked during the Iran conflict, causing protracted disruption to production of LNG, helium, and urea. Second, the security situation for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has deteriorated, leading to a sharp decline in exports.

According to the People’s Daily, International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez recently stated that security in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters continues to worsen. Since the beginning of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, more than 110 ships in and near the Strait have been attacked, with at least 24 seafarers killed. From October 5th to 11th, 12 ship attacks were reported, the highest weekly total since late February, with six ships attacked on the 11th alone. Statistics show shipping volume through the Strait has dropped to less than 10% of pre-conflict levels.

QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure clause for LNG deliveries until November, showing that supply interruption continues.

The fiscal impact of evaporating gas revenues on Qatar is becoming apparent.

Qatar’s Ministry of Finance reported that in the second quarter of this year, the government budget deficit reached 21.2 billion riyals (about $5.8 billion), the highest since the end of 2016 and nearly double the deficit of the first quarter.

What the Trade Flow Reversal Means

This deal marks a reshaping of traditional energy trade routes by geopolitical forces. In the past, the flow of LNG was relatively clear—Middle East exports went to Asia and Europe, while the US, as an emerging supplier, penetrated global markets. Now, with a Middle Eastern exporter starting to import LNG from the US, the basic assumption of this pattern has been broken.

For the market, the direct impact is on two fronts: first, the capacity lock-in period of US LNG export facilities is further extended, improving the cash flow visibility of exporters like Cheniere; second, Qatar’s procurement needs may persist for several years, providing additional demand support for North American LNG prices.

If passage risks in the Strait of Hormuz become prolonged, the restoration of Middle Eastern LNG export capacity will face structural obstacles. Whether other Gulf energy exporters relying on this corridor will seek similar arrangements will be a key development to watch.