Trump Threatens Small-Scale 'Epic Wrath' Action Against Iran; Iran Plans to Target Submarine Cables; Oil Tanker Hit by Mine in Hormuz

Amid the escalating US-Iran conflict, Trump on one hand hinted at the possibility of launching another military operation against Iran, while also signaling that the war could end quickly. Reports from Iran indicate that plans have been formulated to target undersea communication cables in the Gulf region if hostilities resume, raising risks to regional energy transport and communication infrastructure simultaneously.

According to CCTV News, on Friday, October 23 local time, US President Trump stated that the US might launch another small-scale "Epic Fury" operation, or Iran might choose to compromise. Trump said, if Iran is smart enough, it would simply say, "Let's talk business."

Also on Friday, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy claimed that two supertankers attempting to illegally cross the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz struck mines. According to the Iranians, the two tankers were carrying over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil in total, and their crew abandoned ship and escaped. These claims have yet to be independently verified.

For the international energy market, the most important variable remains whether the Strait of Hormuz can maintain stable passage, and whether the US-Iran conflict will further escalate. Trump's statements show that the US is still weighing between military pressure and ending the conflict. Reports from Iran about tankers hitting mines and plans to target undersea cables further highlight the multiple risks that an escalating conflict could bring.

Looking ahead, the market needs to pay attention not only to whether the US and Iran will resume negotiations or clash again, but also to whether commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be disrupted, whether related tanker incidents can be independently verified, and whether potential retaliation may expand from military targets to energy and communications infrastructure. Together, these factors will determine the actual impact of Middle East risks on international crude oil prices and the global supply chain.

Trump Hints at Another Small-Scale Military Operation, Also States the War Could End Quickly

According to reports, while attending a rally in Florida on Friday local time, Trump said the US might take military action against Iran again. He said: "We might have another small-scale 'Epic Fury' operation." Trump did not further specify the form, targets, or timeline of such an operation.

The US Department of Defense named the US-Israel military strike against Iran on February 28 "Operation Epic Fury." Trump's latest remarks mean that, with the war ongoing for nearly eight months, the White House has not ruled out the possibility of further military action.

However, on Friday Trump also signaled another possibility regarding ending the war.

According to Reuters, while speaking to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House, Trump said the US could end the war with Iran very quickly, but also posed the question: should the US end the war completely, or let the conflict die down gradually?

"We can end it very quickly," Trump said. "The question is, do we finish it completely, or just let it fade away?"

Trump also said oil is being transported through the Strait of Hormuz, and noted that the US is "getting everything we want." However, he did not specify how to ensure normal maritime transport while maintaining military pressure.

The juxtaposition of these two statements underscores the current uncertainty of the US's policy toward Iran: on the one hand, Trump hopes to force Iran to yield through military and economic pressure; on the other hand, prolonged conflict is pushing up energy costs and increasing domestic political pressure in the US. Reuters points out that rising fuel prices are becoming an important political challenge in the run-up to the US midterm elections in November.

US Media Reports the US and Israel Have Finalized Strike Plans for after Midterm Elections, Whether Trump Will Approve Still Unclear

Trump's remarks on the possible resumption of military action have drawn attention to previous reports about subsequent plans by the US and Israel.

According to Xinhua News Agency citing a New York Times report on Wednesday, October 21, US and Israeli military have formulated detailed plans to strike Iran again after the November US congressional midterm elections, but it is still uncertain whether Trump will approve such a plan.

This means that while military action remains a possibility, it cannot be concluded that the US has already decided to launch a new round of strikes after the midterm elections.

The Trump administration faces a difficult choice: if it continues to escalate military action, it may further damage Iran's military capabilities, but might also prolong the conflict and increase the risk of attacks on energy facilities in the Gulf; if it decides to end the war, it must assess whether Iran is willing to make substantive concessions on its nuclear program and regional security issues.

For the energy market, what truly affects supply expectations is not only whether a new round of military operations is launched, but also the scope of the strike, Iran's countermeasures, and whether the conflict will further impact commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Claims Two Supertankers Hit Mines, over 4.5 Million Barrels of Crude Oil Involved

The risks to shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz are also mounting.

According to CCTV News, on October 23 local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced that two supertankers attempting to illegally cross the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz struck mines earlier that day. Iran stated that the explosion and fire disabled the engine rooms of both ships, which stopped and were abandoned by their crews, with a combined cargo of over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil.

It is important to emphasize that this incident is currently based solely on Iranian statements. The names of the vessels, exact damage status, crew condition, and whether there was an oil spill all require further independent confirmation; Iran's account of the mine strikes and resulting consequences should not be regarded as verified facts at this stage.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is one of the world's most important energy transport routes. Even without large-scale, ongoing disruption to crude oil transport, incidents such as tanker attacks, strikes by mines, or forced route changes can drive up shipping insurance, war risk premiums, and transport costs.

Recently, disputes over regulations governing passage through the Strait have intensified. Iran has repeatedly claimed that some ships are using routes not recognized by Iran and has attributed certain maritime incidents to unauthorized passage; the US continues to impose maritime blockades and economic pressure on Iran. The two sides have markedly different positions on navigation safety and rules for passage through the Strait.

If reports of tankers hitting mines are further confirmed, and ship operators reduce voyages through the area as a result, the market may reassess the actual availability of Middle Eastern crude exports. However, whether the incident itself results in substantive supply losses depends on the extent of damage to the vessels, cargo status, and subsequent shipping arrangements.

Iran Plans to Extend Retaliation Scope to Undersea Communication Cables, Infrastructure Risk Spilling Over

In addition to tankers and energy facilities, reports claim Iran is considering extending potential retaliation to undersea communication infrastructure as well.

According to a Reuters report on October 23, two senior Iranian security officials revealed that if the US and Israel attack Iran again, the Iranian government has detailed plans to target undersea communication cables in the Gulf area. Neither official disclosed specific locations or means of attack.

One of the officials stated that Iran may also attempt to hinder repairs to damaged cables, in order to prolong communications outages. The official warned that if Iran is attacked, retaliation would no longer be constrained by previously stated "red lines," and targets could expand from undersea cables to military bases, including covert installations.

Previously, officials from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had warned that, should Iranian infrastructure be attacked, the seven main internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz could become targets.

However, the global impact of attacks on undersea cables requires specific analysis. According to the International Telecommunication Union, undersea cables carry about 99% of the world's internet traffic, but Alan Mauldin, research director at telecom research firm TeleGeography, says the share of international bandwidth passing through the Strait of Hormuz is less than 1%. Thus, even if the cables are damaged, the overall impact on the global internet may be limited. The Gulf region and countries and companies heavily dependent on those lines, however, may face direct risks of communication outages.

The significance of this threat lies in its potential to expand the impact of conflict beyond oil production, energy facilities, and maritime transport. If communication cables are also included in retaliatory measures, the Gulf region's financial transactions, corporate communications, cloud services, and cross-border data transmission could all face additional risks.

At present, the reports reflect contingency plans described by Iranian officials, which does not mean such strikes have already occurred or that Iran has made a decision to carry them out. The subsequent impact still depends on whether US-Iran diplomatic relations continue to deteriorate and whether both sides further expand military actions and retaliation targets.