AI trading collapse: Will Anthropic postpone its "Super IPO"? The "scheduled listing date" in mid-November is approaching.

AI unicorn Anthropic is standing at the historic threshold of going public, but increasing market headwinds are adding uncertainty.

According to Reuters, Claude chatbot developer Anthropic plans to complete its IPO by mid-November, targeting a valuation as high as 2 trillion USD. This could surpass the 1.77 trillion USD public listing scale set by SpaceX earlier this year, making it one of the largest tech IPOs in history. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires companies to publicly file their prospectus at least 15 days before launching a roadshow, which means that Anthropic's window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing.

Meanwhile, the AI sector has recently faced significant sell-offs — CoreWeave's stock price has plunged about 30% in just two weeks, and Micron has fallen 17% over the past month — as concerns about the sustainability of AI spending continue to rise. Several market participants noted that Anthropic may face pressure to delay its listing, but analysts also point out that the company's urgent need for capital might drive it to stick to its original plan. Prediction markets currently show that the probability of Anthropic going public this year is about 80%.

Time Window: S-1 Filing No Later Than Next Week

According to SEC regulations, companies must publicly file their prospectus (S-1 document) at least 15 days before starting their roadshow. Jay Ritterh, head of the IPO research project at the University of Florida, stated that if Anthropic wishes to complete its IPO before Thanksgiving, there is still enough time, but the schedule is already quite tight.

Specifically, if the company schedules the IPO for November 24 at the latest and launches the roadshow on November 16, it must publicly file its S-1 document by the end of next week.

It's worth noting that, previously, Anthropic was expected to publish its prospectus shortly after Labor Day, with the market anticipating a potential listing in late September. However, that plan did not advance as scheduled.

Market Headwinds: AI Sector Under Pressure, IPO Window Narrows

According to MarketWatch, the recent significant pullback in AI-related stocks is a key variable that Anthropic’s management must seriously consider.

Emerging cloud computing firm CoreWeave has seen its stock fall about 30% in the past two weeks due to concerns over its debt management, while storage chip giant Micron has dropped by 17% over the past month, reflecting widespread anxiety over the scale of AI spending and future financing prospects.

Joe Tigay, portfolio manager of Rational Equity Armor Fund, noted that ongoing inflationary pressure and high energy prices are also matters of concern.

“Historically, a combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation often signals cracks in the stock market. If these pressures continue, Anthropic is fully justified in remaining private and waiting for a better window.”

However, there are also voices saying that Anthropic’s IPO is essential for restoring market confidence.

Jim Lebenthal, chief market strategist at Cerity Partners, pointed out that the long-term viability and commercial models of the AI sector have recently come under increased scrutiny, and the market needs a successful Anthropic IPO to prove that AI can sustain healthy growth.

“It’s reasonable to raise questions, and even to have doubts,” Lebenthal said, “but the overall health of the stock market and the U.S. economy largely depend on the success of the artificial intelligence sector.”

Capital Demand: Going Public Is the Most Pragmatic Path to Funding

Setting aside market sentiment, Anthropic’s own urgent need for capital is perhaps the core driver for it to persist with its plan to go public.

Andrew Rocco, equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said that the largest AI companies have already demonstrated that “they are basically willing to invest at scale as much as possible to acquire more users and try to become the dominant AI player.”

He believes Anthropic will push hard to go public, “because they really need the money, especially as fundraising in the private market could become increasingly difficult.”

Wallstreet Insights reported, citing The Wall Street Journal, that Anthropic’s prospectus draft reveals the company could spend as much as 750 billion USD on AI computing power over the next several years. Meanwhile, the prospectus indicates Anthropic recorded a net loss of more than 80 billion USD in the first half of 2026, with revenue of 16.3 billion USD, though this loss was mainly due to accounting adjustments rather than deterioration of its core business.

Prediction markets indicate that the probability of Anthropic completing its IPO within the year is about 80%.