Bitget UEX Daily | Inflation Pressure Returns; Tech Earnings Face a Test; BTC Nears Institutional Cost Basis (October 26, 2026)

I. Hot News Highlights

1. US Economy | Strong Expansion Meets Faster Price Increases

The October flash composite PMI eased from 58.4 to 57.6, still signaling strong expansion. Selling prices across goods and services rose at the fastest pace since August 2022, with demand, supply constraints and energy costs shaping business conditions.

Market impact: Resilient growth supports revenue, while inflation limits room for policy easing. Earnings will test whether sales and pricing can cover costs and translate into profits and cash flow.

2. Energy | Supply Concerns Lift Friday Oil Before Monday’s Pullback

Brent settled at $116.72/bbl on Friday amid supply concerns following attacks in Saudi Arabia. December Brent retreated to $110.32 in Monday morning trading; the pullback alone does not establish that supply risks have cleared.

Market impact: Elevated energy costs affect transport, chemicals and consumer goods. Actual production, shipping conditions and the durability of the price decline remain key margin indicators.

3. US Consumers | Sentiment at 48.0 as Current Conditions Weaken

Final October Michigan consumer sentiment was 48.0 versus September’s 48.1. Current conditions fell from 50.9 to 46.7, while expectations increased from 46.3 to 48.8, revealing a divergence between present experience and the outlook.

Market impact: Strong business activity coexists with weak household sentiment. Actual spending, volumes and promotions will help assess consumer demand and companies’ pricing power.

II. Market Review

Commodities and FX

Oil traded below Friday’s settlement but remained elevated, while gold hovered around $4,000 and the 10-year yield approached 5%. Costs, financing conditions and earnings must be assessed together; a decline in one asset does not establish a broad easing in financial conditions.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC: 80,322.15 USDT, down 0.71% over 24 hours. ETH: 2,336.32 USDT, down 0.95%. Total crypto market capitalization was approximately $2.68 trillion, down 4.33%, with its separate update at 08:23 BJT.

Liquidation distances and cost gaps use contemporaneous USD reference prices of $80,240.86 for BTC and $2,333.96 for ETH.

BTC liquidation zones: A relatively prominent potential short-liquidation cluster lies around $81,100–81,700, approximately 1.07%–1.82% above the reference price. A potential long-liquidation cluster lies around $79,300–79,900, approximately 0.42%–1.17% below. The lower near edge is closer; further declines warrant attention to potential long deleveraging.

ETH liquidation zones: A relatively prominent potential short-liquidation cluster lies around $2,360–2,395, approximately 1.12%–2.62% above the reference price. A potential long-liquidation cluster lies around $2,295–2,315, approximately 0.81%–1.67% below. The lower near edge is slightly closer; watch potential long-liquidation pressure on declines and short-position changes on rebounds.

BTC institutional costs: Glassnode’s October 21 report estimates an average BTC cost of approximately $80,200 for the treasury companies it covers, using holdings data through October 19. BTC is approximately 0.05% above that reference. Strategy held 848,517 BTC as of October 18 at an average total cost of $75,446, including fees; BTC is approximately 6.36% above that cost. These percentages compare BTC prices with BTC costs only.

Market watch: BTC is close to the $80,200 treasury cost reference, which is near the lower $79,300–79,900 liquidation zone. Further declines warrant attention to both reference gains disappearing and deleveraging. ETH is also closer to its lower liquidation zone; these areas flag potential volatility rather than guaranteed support.

Major US Equity Indices

All three indexes fell, led lower by the Dow, while the Nasdaq’s decline moderated from the previous session. This week’s tech earnings will test the relationship between AI investment, revenue and cash flow.

Magnificent Seven

One rose and six fell, with Microsoft the sole gainer and Alphabet the largest decliner. Microsoft reports after the October 28 US close, putting cloud growth and the profitability of AI investment in focus.

Sector Moves

Oilfield services: SLB gained 7.08%, with third-quarter revenue rising 6% year on year. Customer capex, contracts and cash flow will help assess how oil prices translate into service demand.

Delivery platforms: Instacart advanced 9.21% amid potential-sale reports. Crypto-linked equities diverged: Coinbase fell 2.74%, while Strategy gained 0.14%, reflecting different exposures to asset prices, trading activity and financing conditions.

III. In-Depth US Equity Analysis

1. SLB | Revenue and Cash Generation Support Shares

Event overview: SLB closed at $53.06, up 7.08%. Third-quarter revenue rose 6% to $9.45 billion; adjusted EPS declined 7% to $0.64, while free cash flow was $828 million.

Market interpretation: Revenue growth has not yet produced year-on-year EPS growth. Cash generation provides another measure of business quality beyond oil prices.

Investment implications: Watch customer capex, execution and cash collection. Margin improvement will determine how effectively revenue growth translates into shareholder returns.

2. Microsoft | Earnings Will Test AI Investment Returns

Event overview: Microsoft closed at $524.51, up 0.66%, the only Magnificent Seven gainer. Fiscal Q1 2027 results are scheduled after the October 28 US close.

Market interpretation: Results have not yet been released. Cloud demand, AI revenue and capex remain the key relationship to assess; one session’s relative strength does not validate earnings.

Investment implications: Watch Azure growth, AI capacity constraints and capex’s effect on free cash flow. Sustained revenue and profit generated by investment matter more than spending alone.

3. Instacart | Sale Reports Lift Shares Without a Confirmed Deal

Event overview: Instacart closed at $56.44, up 9.21%. Reports said it explored a sale and approached Uber and DoorDash; Bloomberg subsequently reported that Uber had walked away.

Market interpretation: Shares reflect potential takeover expectations, but no signed acquisition agreement has been announced. Buyer interest and regulatory scrutiny remain central variables.

Investment implications: Watch formal disclosures, buyer identity and terms. The share-price gain does not establish that a transaction will close.

IV. Market & Project Updates

1. HSBC Launches RedCoin Through PayMe

HSBC launched its HKD stablecoin RedCoin, ticker RCHKD, on October 23, progressively enabling wallets for more than 3.3 million PayMe users for personal and merchant payments. Connections to tokenized investments remain planned for later this year.

2. Circle Gateway Adds cirBTC and EURC

Circle announced Gateway support for cirBTC and EURC on October 23, extending unified crosschain balances to more assets. Actual payment and settlement adoption, alongside custody and redemption arrangements, remain key checks.

3. Circle Expands Its Alliance Program

On October 22, Circle announced eight additional member benefits and a private community hub for its Alliance Program. Integrations, usage and revenue conversion will determine the commercial value; benefits alone do not establish additional transaction volume.

V. Today’s Market Calendar

Event preview: Tonight’s regional manufacturing survey offers demand and cost signals before the Fed meeting and tech earnings. The official calendar places durable goods orders on October 27 US time, not tonight.

Institutional view: BondBloxx strategist JoAnne Bianco highlighted sticky inflation as a market headwind on October 23. With long-term yields near 5%, earnings growth must be assessed against financing and valuation pressure.

For market information only; not investment advice.