Why is bitcoin struggling to rise? Significant selling pressure exists above 87,000, and increased correlation with US stocks makes it difficult for bitcoin to rally independently.

Glassnode analysts pointed out that investors who bought Bitcoin in the past two years have a holding cost concentrated in the $87,000 and above range, and selling pressure from these holders has twice suppressed Bitcoin’s upward momentum this year.

Written by: Yang Chen, Wallstreetcn

Bitcoin’s summer rally is fading. After reaching a high of $87,000, it has now fallen back to around $80,000, with significant potential sell orders accumulating on the path to $100,000.

According to Polymarket prediction market data, the market estimates the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year at only 17%, with the probability of breaking above $110,000 even lower at 9%.

Glassnode analysts pointed out that positions locked above $87,000 are obstructing price increases. Each time Bitcoin faces this selling pressure, the price has often subsequently fallen by 25% or even more.

Macro factors are also impossible to ignore. Inflation data and the geopolitical situation around Iran have both impacted Bitcoin’s price. In mid-October, Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities reached its highest level since the end of May, indicating high sensitivity to global macro market fluctuations.

As of press time, Bitcoin was up 0.87% on Tuesday, trading at $80,700.

Locked positions become key resistance

The main reason this rally stalled is due to investors consistently “selling into strength.”

According to research from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, investors who bought Bitcoin over the past two years have their holding costs roughly concentrated in the $87,000 and above range. After the price reached this area, these investors chose to exit their positions or take profits, and this has killed Bitcoin's rally twice this year.

Glassnode researchers further indicated that each time Bitcoin experiences this selling pressure, the price typically sees a correction of 25% or more, showing that selling at this level is strong and systematic, rather than a short-term disturbance.

The technical resistance at this level, combined with deleveraging pressure, has amplified the downward movement. Kaiko research analyst Thomas Probst noted that during Bitcoin’s recent decline, forced liquidation of leveraged long positions exacerbated the price drop.

Increasing macro correlation raises volatility risk

Beyond technical resistance, Bitcoin's linkage with traditional financial markets has continued to strengthen, further suppressing its room for independent appreciation. Bitcoin’s correlation with equities reached its highest level since late May in mid-October, meaning that if global risk assets are sold off, Bitcoin is unlikely to remain untouched.

Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang pointed out, “If the stock market rebounds, it may provide some short-term support for Bitcoin, as Bitcoin remains sensitive to overall risk appetite.”

The unexpectedly strong inflation data and the repeated swings in geopolitical tensions have become key variables affecting Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. This is in stark contrast to the narrative of some investors who see Bitcoin as “digital gold” and a macro hedge, making it more difficult for bullish strategies that rely on macro tailwinds to be effective.