Ford Doesn't Need to Grow. It Needs to Prove It's Stable. -- Barrons.com

By Al Root

For Ford Motor, stability -- not growth -- is Job 1 when it delivers quarterly numbers after Wednesday's market close.

In fact, investors don't expect an increase in Ford's operating profit like they saw in the results put out last week from General Motors. But they do expect a guidance bump -- a sign that better times are ahead.

For the third quarter, analysts project an operating profit of $2.4 billion from sales of $48.3 billion. A year ago, Ford reported $2.6 billion and $50.5 billion.

Revenue is expected to drop on lower sales volume because of Ford's 7% drop in U.S. retail sales in the third quarter. Its EV sales have dropped about 80%.

Ford vehicle maker recognizes wholesale sales, not retail, but both should trend in the same direction.

"SUV demand remained robust," wrote RBC analyst Tom Narayan in a preview report. He expects strong pricing to support third-quarter numbers.

Still, Ford's numbers probably won't come close to GM's because of some company-specific issues, such as a fire at an aluminum supplier that slowed truck production. GM grew third-quarter operating profit to $4.1 billion, up from $3.4 billion a year ago.

But what investors really care about is the future. In July, Ford raised its full-year operating profit guidance to $10 billion to $11 billion, up from $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Wall Street believes operating profit will be at the high end of the range, projecting $10.5 billion.

GM left its full-year operating profit guidance unchanged at $15 billion when it reported third-quarter numbers on Oct. 20.

Some assurance that things will be OK next year is critical for the stock. Wall Street projects growing operating profit, but the stock price shows investors aren't convinced.

Shares are down 11% this year and 11% over the past 12 months, trailing the S&P 500 by about 23 percentage points over both spans.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@barrons.com.

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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October 28, 2026 11:05 ET (15:05 GMT)